JCI, Week 6

Here's the updated JCI w/ games through Sunday January 22nd.  Interesting week with all of the previously undefeated teams losing.  Pitt took the biggest hit, dropping from 3rd to 12th because of its weak schedule.  Duke holds on to the top spot in the JCI even with its loss at Georgetown.

The biggest story of the week has to be Wisconsin losing at home to North Dakota State.  All this talk about the Kohl Center being a tough place to win can now officially be put to rest.  The Badgers dropped from 10th to 22nd (they also lost at Ohio St last week).  North Dakota St rose from 170th to 163rd (two days before beating Wisconsin, the Bison lost at #278 Utah Valley St...yikes!).  The fine folks at the JCI Institute calculate the probability of North Dakota St beating Wisconsin is approximately 1.6%.

The North Dakota win was the 2nd biggest upset of the year so far, topped only by #303 UC Riverside's win at #120 Pacific on January 7th.  Here's the top 10 biggest upsets so far this year (all games were road games except the Monmouth win over SIU which was on a neutral court):

Date	Rk	Team	Rk	Opp	Exp Win%
1/7/2006	303-	UC Riverside	120-	Pacific	1.41%
1/21/2006	163-	North Dakota St	22-	Wisconsin	1.61%
11/29/2005	144-	Dayton	25-	Cincinnati	2.11%
1/19/2006	316-	St. Francis-PA	208-	Wagner	2.33%
1/5/2006	272-	Canisius	107-	Marist	2.86%
12/30/2005	180-	Elon	41-	Clemson	2.94%
1/21/2006	243-	Central Michigan	85-	Buffalo	3.22%
12/2/2005	317-	Army	234-	Columbia	3.31%
11/24/2005	216-	Monmouth	36-	Southern Illinois	3.34%

 

UConn #1 in the polls

I normally don't like to be in the position to have to defend Duke, but they still deserve to be #1 in the polls even after losing this week.  The pollsters tend to operate week-to-week (you lost this past week, therefore you must move down) instead of looking at the season as a whole.  Fortunately, we have the JCI to provide an objective view of a team's overall resume of wins and losses.  When looked at as a whole, the comparison between Duke and UConn isn't even close at least at this point.  Duke has 3 wins that are more impressive than UConn's most impressive win, and Duke's loss at #18 Georgetown isn't as bad as UConn's loss at #33 Marquette. (note: The Exp Win% below gives the probability that the #50 team would win against that opponent considering the location of the game).

Connecticut Top 8 Wins					Duke Top 8 Wins
Date	Rk	Opp	Exp Win%		Date	Rk	Opp	Exp Win%
11/23	9- vs Gonzaga		10.2%		12/10	2- vs Texas		3.3%
1/16	20- at Syracuse		10.8%		11/25	4- vs Memphis		4.5%
1/21	42- at Louisville		29.3%		11/30	15- at Indiana		6.7%
1/14	18- Georgetown		34.9%		1/18	10- North Carolina St		21.9%
1/7	24- LSU		45.0%		1/14	41- at Clemson		28.6%
1/9	25- Cincinnati		45.4%		1/8	45- at Wake Forest		30.0%
11/21	44- vs Arkansas		48.5%		1/2	21- Bucknell		43.7%
11/22	48- vs Arizona		50.9%		1/11	28- Maryland		49.0%
Connecticut Loss					Duke Loss
Date	Rk	Opp	Exp Win%		Date	Rk	Opp	Exp Win%
1/3	33- at Marquette		21.7%		1/21	18- Georgetown		9.6%

JCI, Week 6 (games as of Sunday Jan 22nd)

1. Duke 17-1, RPI: 1, LW:1

2. Texas 16-2, RPI: 15, LW:4

3. Connecticut 16-1, RPI: 9, LW:9

4. Memphis 17-2, RPI: 2, LW:5

5. Florida 17-1, RPI: 19, LW:2

6. Illinois 17-2, RPI: 5, LW:6

7. Villanova 13-2, RPI: 3, LW:7

8. George Washington 14-1, RPI: 44, LW:8

9. Gonzaga 15-3, RPI: 7, LW:13

10. North Carolina St 15-3, RPI: 22, LW:11

11. Tennessee 12-3, RPI: 6, LW:20

12. Pittsburgh 15-1, RPI: 11, LW:3

13. Michigan St 14-4, RPI: 4, LW:15

14. Ohio State 14-2, RPI: 10, LW:18

15. Indiana 12-3, RPI: 12, LW:17

16. West Virginia 13-3, RPI: 28, LW:27

17. Iowa 14-5, RPI: 14, LW:14

18. Georgetown 12-4, RPI: 36, LW:49

19. Northern Iowa 15-3, RPI: 13, LW:21

20. Syracuse 15-4, RPI: 21, LW:12

21. Bucknell 13-3, RPI: 38, LW:19

22. Wisconsin 14-4, RPI: 8, LW:10

23. Wichita St 15-4, RPI: 23, LW:28

24. LSU 11-5, RPI: 31, LW:33

25. Cincinnati 13-5, RPI: 17, LW:22

26. Michigan 13-3, RPI: 32, LW:23

27. Washington 16-2, RPI: 35, LW:26

28. Maryland 12-4, RPI: 24, LW:25

29. Xavier 12-3, RPI: 40, LW:16

30. UCLA 15-4, RPI: 18, LW:24

31. Boston College 13-4, RPI: 25, LW:36

32. North Carolina 11-4, RPI: 33, LW:34

33. Marquette 13-5, RPI: 29, LW:41

34. Colorado 13-3, RPI: 66, LW:50

35. Creighton 13-4, RPI: 27, LW:35

36. Southern Illinois 14-4, RPI: 26, LW:30

37. Wis-Milwaukee 13-4, RPI: 20, LW:40

38. Iona 13-3, RPI: 53, LW:56

39. Vanderbilt 12-4, RPI: 45, LW:32

40. Kentucky 12-6, RPI: 43, LW:60

41. Clemson 13-5, RPI: 47, LW:39

42. Louisville 13-5, RPI: 82, LW:29

43. Missouri St 12-5, RPI: 34, LW:38

44. Arkansas 13-5, RPI: 60, LW:45

45. Wake Forest 12-6, RPI: 62, LW:37

46. Florida St 11-4, RPI: 100, LW:31

47. Ohio 10-3, RPI: 81, LW:46

48. Arizona 12-6, RPI: 16, LW:61

49. Iowa State 11-6, RPI: 52, LW:53

50. Oklahoma 11-4, RPI: 30, LW:67

51. UAB 13-3, RPI: 39, LW:57

52. Akron 12-3, RPI: 74, LW:64

53. Winthrop 10-4, RPI: 54, LW:70

54. Rutgers 11-6, RPI: 67, LW:42

55. Miami-Florida 11-7, RPI: 87, LW:43

56. Georgia 12-6, RPI: 63, LW:52

57. Alabama 10-7, RPI: 57, LW:65

58. Nevada 12-4, RPI: 51, LW:51

59. Notre Dame 10-6, RPI: 88, LW:48

60. Mississippi 13-4, RPI: 96, LW:58

Conference Rankings:

1.	Big Ten		0.8014
2.	ACC		0.7971
3.	Big East		0.7917
4.	SEC		0.7913
5.	Big 12		0.7498
6.	Missouri Valley		0.7053
7.	Pac-10		0.6605
8.	Atlantic 10		0.6190
9.	Mountain West		0.5736
10.	Mid-American		0.5645
11.	West Coast		0.5497
12.	WAC		0.5407
13.	Colonial		0.5355
14.	Metro Atlantic		0.5286
15.	Horizon		0.5068

Jayhawk Watch

Kansas beat Nebraska at home over the weekend, raising their record to 10-6 and moving from 93rd to 86th in the JCI.  Will they make the tourney or are they NIT bound?  They have two road games this week - at #69 Texas A&M and at #49 Iowa State that could go a long way towards proving which side of the fence they belong.