Pages

Most Deserving: Rating the Bubble Teams

3/10/2006

Time to run my 'most deserving' analysis on the bubble teams. By my count, as of Friday morning there are 19 bubble teams currently competing for 14 spots.

Bubble Teams: Cincinnati, Wichita St, Michigan, Washington, Nevada, Northern Iowa, Florida St, Maryland, Texas A&M, UAB, Missouri St, Hofstra, George Mason, Seton Hall, Alabama, Creighton, Bradley, Arizona and California.

Note: Louisville and Vanderbilt can hardly be considered bubble teams but I included them in the analysis for context, since both have similar profiles to teams like Arizona and California, two teams that many have already in the tournament. Also, the analysis is through Thursday's games, so doesn't include Texas A&M's win over Colorado or Alabama's loss to Kentucky.

Take Cincinnati and Wichita St as an example. I define Cincinnati as being 'more deserving' if it's less likely (i.e. more difficult) for a hypothetical xth-ranked team (take the midpoint of the two teams in question) to go 18-12 given Cincinnati's schedule than it is to go 23-8 given Wichita State. We can do this for each pair on the list and create a matrix. In this example, the probability of the team going 18-12 under Cincinnati's schedule is 54.5% and the probability of going 23-8 under Wichita State's schedule is 65.5%, so I show Cincinnati's advantage over Wichita State as +11.0%.

For each bubble team, I can categorized each of its 'competitors' as favorable or unfavorable. Also, for teams that have a sizable advantage, I created a cut-off that says even if the team in question had one less win and more loss, you'd still consider them favorable. I'd consider this to be a significant difference.

Essentially, this is what the Committee is trying to decide -- whether one team with one record and a given set of wins and losses is more or less deserving than a team with another record and a different set of wins and losses. If you truly believe that they're looking at a team's 'body of work', then their list would have to look very similar to this. To the extent that it doesn't means they are overvaluing other aspects, such as last 10 games, quality wins, differences in the RPI, etc.

The results are surprising, especially for teams like Arizona and California. A lot can change between now and Selection Sunday. I'll try to update this on Sunday when chances most of these teams will be done playing.

1. Cincinnati (18-12)
Unfavorable: None
Favorable: Wichita St +0.2%; Michigan +0.3%; Nevada +4.5%; Washington +4.9%; Northern Iowa +8.2%; Florida St +8.5%; Maryland +8.6%; Texas A&M +12.2%; Missouri St +14.8%; Hofstra +15.6%; UAB +15.8%
>1 Game Favorable: George Mason +26.7%; Louisville +27.7%; Alabama +28.3%; Seton Hall +29.5%; Creighton +31.7%; Bradley +34.6%; Arizona +36.4%; Vanderbilt +37.9%; California +46.9%

2. Wichita State (23-8)
Unfavorable: Cincinnati -0.2%
Favorable: Michigan +0.3%; Washington +4.5%; Nevada +4.7%; Northern Iowa +7.6%; Maryland +8.2%; Florida St +8.3%; Texas A&M +11.7%; Missouri St +14.3%; Hofstra +14.8%; UAB +15.1%
>1 Game Favorable: George Mason +26.6%; Louisville +27.8%; Alabama +28.1%; Seton Hall +29.2%; Creighton +31.5%; Bradley +35.0%; Arizona +36.2%; Vanderbilt +37.4%; California +46.9%;

3. Michigan (18-10)
Unfavorable: Wichita St -0.3%; Cincinnati -0.3%
Favorable: Nevada +4.0%; Washington +4.5%; Northern Iowa +7.5%; Florida St +7.6%; Maryland +8.0%; Texas A&M +11.1%; Hofstra +14.2%; Missouri St +14.2%; UAB +15.1%
>1 Game Favorable: George Mason +25.9%; Louisville +26.7%; Alabama +27.6%; Seton Hall +28.5%; Creighton +31.0%; Bradley +33.9%; Arizona +35.7%; Vanderbilt +36.7%; California +46.0%

4. Nevada (24-5)
Unfavorable: Wichita St -4.7%; Cincinnati -4.5%; Michigan -4.0%
Favorable: Washington +0.2%; Northern Iowa +2.9%; Florida St +2.9%; Maryland +3.6%; Texas A&M +6.6%; Missouri St +9.1%; Hofstra +9.9%; UAB +11.2%
>1 Game Favorable: George Mason +20.5%; Louisville +21.4%; Alabama +21.8%; Seton Hall +23.1%; Creighton +25.3%; Bradley +27.9%; Arizona +30.4%; Vanderbilt +31.4%; California +40.1%

5. Washington (24-6)
Unfavorable: Cincinnati -4.9%; Wichita St -4.5%; Michigan -4.5%; Nevada -0.2%;
Favorable: Northern Iowa +2.5%; Florida St +3.1%; Maryland +3.8%; Texas A&M +6.7%; Missouri St +9.1%; Hofstra +9.7%; UAB +10.7%
>1 Game Favorable: George Mason +20.9%; Louisville +22.0%; Alabama +22.5%; Seton Hall +23.4%; Creighton +25.5%; Bradley +29.1%; Arizona +30.3%; Vanderbilt +31.9%; California +41.1%

6. Northern Iowa (21-9)
Unfavorable: Cincinnati -8.2%; Wichita St -7.6%; Michigan -7.5%; Nevada -2.9%; Washington -2.5%
Favorable: Maryland +0.6%; Florida St +0.8%; Texas A&M +4.4%; Missouri St +7.3%; Hofstra +8.0%; UAB +8.8%
>1 Game Favorable: George Mason +19.7%; Alabama +20.6%; Louisville +20.6%; Seton Hall +22.0%; Creighton +24.8%; Bradley +27.9%; Arizona +29.6%; Vanderbilt +31.4%; California +41.1%

7. Florida St (19-9)
Unfavorable: Cincinnati -8.5%; Wichita St -8.3%; Michigan -7.6%; Washington -3.1%; Nevada -2.9%; Northern Iowa -0.8%;
Favorable: Maryland +0.0%; Texas A&M +4.0%; Missouri St +5.8%; Hofstra +6.9%; UAB +8.1%; George Mason +17.8%; Louisville +18.7%; Alabama +18.9%;
>1 Game Favorable: Seton Hall +20.2%; Creighton +22.4%; Bradley +25.3%; Arizona +27.2%; Vanderbilt +28.7%; California +37.8%;

8. Maryland (18-11)
Unfavorable: Cincinnati -8.6%; Wichita St -8.2%; Michigan -8.0%; Washington -3.8%; Nevada -3.6%; Northern Iowa -0.6%; Florida St -0.0%
Favorable: Texas A&M +3.6%; Missouri St +5.6%; Hofstra +6.7%; UAB +7.9%; George Mason +18.4%;
>1 Game Favorable: Alabama +19.1%; Louisville +19.1%; Seton Hall +20.7%; Creighton +22.7%; Bradley +25.6%; Arizona +27.6%; Vanderbilt +29.1%; California +38.5%;

9. Texas A&M (20-7)
Unfavorable: Cincinnati -12.2%; Wichita St -11.7%; Michigan -11.1%; Washington -6.7%; Nevada -6.6%; Northern Iowa -4.4%; Florida St -4.0%; Maryland -3.6%
Favorable: Missouri St +1.8%; Hofstra +2.8%; UAB +4.2%; George Mason +14.2%; Louisville +15.0%; Alabama +15.4%; Seton Hall +16.5%; Creighton +18.9%
>1 Game Favorable: Bradley +21.8%; Arizona +23.7%; Vanderbilt +24.8%; California +34.3%

10. Missouri State (20-8)
Unfavorable: Cincinnati -14.8%; Wichita St -14.3%; Michigan -14.2%; Washington -9.1%; Nevada -9.1%; Northern Iowa -7.3%; Florida St -5.8%; Maryland -5.6%; Texas A&M -1.8%
Favorable: Hofstra +1.3%; UAB +2.8%; George Mason +12.6%; Louisville +13.5%; Alabama +13.6%; Seton Hall +14.8%; Creighton +17.1%;
>1 Game Favorable: Bradley +20.1%; Arizona +22.1%; Vanderbilt +23.6%; California +33.1%

11. Hofstra (24-6)
Unfavorable: Cincinnati -15.6%; Wichita St -14.8%; Michigan -14.2%; Nevada -9.9%; Washington -9.7%; Northern Iowa -8.0%; Florida St -6.9%; Maryland -6.7%; Texas A&M -2.8%; Missouri St -1.3%;
Favorable: UAB +1.8%; George Mason +11.5%; Alabama +12.1%; Louisville +12.2%; Seton Hall +13.6%; Creighton +15.8%; Bradley +19.0%;
>1 Game Favorable: Arizona +20.7%; Vanderbilt +22.2%; California +31.5%;

12. UAB (22-5)
Unfavorable: Cincinnati -15.8%; Michigan -15.1%; Wichita St -15.1%; Nevada -11.2%; Washington -10.7%; Northern Iowa -8.8%; Florida St -8.1%; Maryland -7.9%; Texas A&M -4.2%; Missouri St -2.8%; Hofstra -1.8%
Favorable: George Mason +8.6%; Louisville +8.7%; Alabama +9.5%; Seton Hall +11.0%; Creighton +12.4%; Bradley +15.4%; Arizona +17.1%; Vanderbilt +18.2%
>1 Game Favorable: California +26.9%;

13. Alabama (17-11)
>1 Game Unfavorable: Cincinnati -28.3%; Wichita St -28.1%; Michigan -27.6%; Washington -22.5%; Nevada -21.8%; Northern Iowa -20.6%; Maryland -19.1%
Unfavorable: Florida St -18.9%; Texas A&M -15.4%; Missouri St -13.6%; Hofstra -12.1%; UAB -9.5%
Favorable: George Mason +0.1%; Louisville +1.1%; Seton Hall +2.1%; Creighton +4.4%; Bradley +6.9%; Arizona +9.1%; Vanderbilt +10.9%
>1 Game Favorable: California +21.7%

14. George Mason (23-7)
>1 Game Unfavorable: Cincinnati -26.7%; Wichita St -26.6%; Michigan -25.9%; Washington -20.9%; Nevada -20.5%; Northern Iowa -19.7%
Unfavorable: Maryland -18.4%; Florida St -17.8%; Texas A&M -14.2%; Missouri St -12.6%; Hofstra -11.5%; UAB -8.6%; Alabama -0.1%;
Favorable: Louisville +0.9%; Seton Hall +2.4%; Creighton +4.5%; Bradley +6.8%; Arizona +8.6%; Vanderbilt +10.2%;
>1 Game Favorable: California +20.7%;

15. Louisville (18-12)
>1 Game Unfavorable: Wichita St -27.8%; Cincinnati -27.7%; Michigan -26.7%; Washington -22.0%; Nevada -21.4%; Northern Iowa -20.6%; Maryland -19.1%
Unfavorable: Florida St -18.7%; Texas A&M -15.0%; Missouri St -13.5%; Hofstra -12.2%; UAB -8.7%; Alabama -1.1%; George Mason -0.9%;
Favorable: Seton Hall +1.4%; Creighton +2.8%; Bradley +5.4%; Arizona +7.7%; Vanderbilt +10.1%; California +19.7%;

16. Seton Hall (18-11)
>1 Game Unfavorable: Cincinnati -29.5%; Wichita St -29.2%; Michigan -28.5%; Washington -23.4%; Nevada -23.1%; Northern Iowa -22.0%; Maryland -20.7%; Florida St -20.2%
Unfavorable: Texas A&M -16.5%; Missouri St -14.8%; Hofstra -13.6%; UAB -11.0%; George Mason -2.4%; Alabama -2.1%; Louisville -1.4%
Favorable: Creighton +2.0%; Bradley +4.5%; Arizona +6.4%; Vanderbilt +8.4%; California +18.7%

17. Creighton (19-9)
>1 Game Unfavorable: Cincinnati -31.7%; Wichita St -31.5%; Michigan -31.0%; Washington -25.5%; Nevada -25.3%; Northern Iowa -24.8%; Maryland -22.7%; Florida St -22.4%
Unfavorable: Texas A&M -18.9%; Missouri St -17.1%; Hofstra -15.8%; UAB -12.4%; George Mason -4.5%; Alabama -4.4%; Louisville -2.8%; Seton Hall -2.0%
Favorable: Bradley +2.6%; Arizona +4.8%; Vanderbilt +6.9%; California +17.0%;

18. Bradley (20-10)
>1 Game Unfavorable: Wichita St -35.0%; Cincinnati -34.6%; Michigan -33.9%; Washington -29.1%; Nevada -27.9%; Northern Iowa -27.9%; Maryland -25.6%; Florida St -25.3%; Texas A&M -21.8%; Missouri St -20.1%;
Unfavorable: Hofstra -19.0%; UAB -15.4%; Alabama -6.9%; George Mason -6.8%; Louisville -5.4%; Seton Hall -4.5%; Creighton -2.6%;
Favorable: Arizona +2.1%; Vanderbilt +3.9%; California +14.7%;

19. Arizona (19-11)
>1 Game Unfavorable: Cincinnati -36.4%; Wichita St -36.2%; Michigan -35.7%; Nevada -30.4%; Washington -30.3%; Northern Iowa -29.6%; Maryland -27.6%; Florida St -27.2%; Texas A&M -23.7%; Missouri St -22.1%; Hofstra -20.7%
Unfavorable: UAB -17.1%; Alabama -9.1%; George Mason -8.6%; Louisville -7.7%; Seton Hall -6.4%; Creighton -4.8%; Bradley -2.1%
Favorable: Vanderbilt +2.8%; California +13.0%

20. Vanderbilt (17-11)
>1 Game Unfavorable: Cincinnati -37.9%; Wichita St -37.4%; Michigan -36.7%; Washington -31.9%; Northern Iowa -31.4%; Nevada -31.4%; Maryland -29.1%; Florida St -28.7%; Texas A&M -24.8%; Missouri St -23.6%; Hofstra -22.2%;
Unfavorable: UAB -18.2%; Alabama -10.9%; George Mason -10.2%; Louisville -10.1%; Seton Hall -8.4%; Creighton -6.9%; Bradley -3.9%; Arizona -2.8%;
Favorable: California +10.2%;

21. California (19-9)
>1 Game Unfavorable: Wichita St -46.9%; Cincinnati -46.9%; Michigan -46.0%; Northern Iowa -41.1%; Washington -41.1%; Nevada -40.1%; Maryland -38.5%; Florida St -37.8%; Texas A&M -34.3%; Missouri St -33.1%; Hofstra -31.5%; UAB -26.9%; Alabama -21.7%; George Mason -20.7%; Seton Hall -18.7%;
Unfavorable: Louisville -19.7%; Creighton -17.0%; Bradley -14.7%; Arizona -13.0%; Vanderbilt -10.2%;
Favorable: None

1 comments:

  1. Askinstoo said...:

    Very nice! I found a place where you can
    make some nice extra cash secret shopping. Just go to the site below
    and put in your zip to see what's available in your area.
    I made over $900 last month having fun!



    make extra money

 
Wegoblogger #31 © 2011 | Designed by Bingo Cash, in collaboration with Modern Warfare 3, VPS Hosting and Compare Web Hosting