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Non-Conference Strength of Schedule

3/13/2006

If the Committee is using the RPI Non-Conf SOS measure to make any of its seeding decisions, somebody needs to be shot. I started looking at this in more detail, and Utah State has a non-conference SOS of 75. Not bad, you say...just check out this backbreaking non-conference schedule:

@ Oral Roberts
@ Middle Tenn St
@ Utah
Middle Tenn St
@ Weber St
Oral Roberts
BYU
Ark-Little Rock
Binghamton
South Dakota St
Northwestern St

The fact that they went 9-2 in non-conference gives them an overall non-conference RPI of 16! SIXTEEN!!!

On the other hand, Georgetown's Non-Conf RPI SOS is 214.

@ Navy
@ James Madison
Vanderbilt
@ Oregon
@ Illinois
Fairfield
Stetson
Savannah St
vs. Colgate
@UTEP
Duke

Georgetown going 9-2 against that schedule gives them a Non-Conf RPI of 71.

Which 9-2 record do you feel is more impressive?

I calculate SOS by converting the games into probabilities then averaging the probabilities, rather than simply averaging the rankings which is pretty much what the RPI does. This method gives Utah St an NC SOS of 315 and Georgetown a NC SOS of 90. Seems a lot more accurate to me.

It boggles my mind that the Committee might rely on a piece of information that could be wrong by 140 or even 240 slots to make key decisions with regards to who's in/who's out and what seed to give them.

BTW, illinois NC RPI SOS is 192. I have it at 154. We have to get rid of those cupcakes!

Other teams that may have been helped by inflated non-conf SOS's: Oklahoma (24 RPI vs 160 JCI), Washington (158 vs 301), Tennessee (10 vs 105), Nevada (44 vs 114), UCLA (14 vs 79), Alabama (18 vs 85) and Arizona (1 vs 18).

Other teams that may have been hurt by underinflated non-conf SOS's: West Virginia (154 RPI vs 65 JCI), NC St (206 vs 133) and Arkansas (215 vs 144)

1 comments:

  1. Askinstoo said...:
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