Mr. Roto, Not So Talented After All

Self-proclaimed 'fantasy sports icon' Matthew Berry, aka The Talented Mr. Roto (http://talentedmrroto.com), published a post-season wrap up article this past Monday on his site and on nba.com. The TMR admirably reviewed his preseason sleeper/bust list to assess how well his recommendations did. In his words:

April 10 - So how’d I do?

When you are an “Expert” – that is to say, when you are paid for your writing and predictions – especially in fantasy sports, you are only as good as your prognostications. Every year, no matter what the sport, I see folks put out their sleeper lists, their busts lists, their projections and rankings.

Then the season ends and everyone forgets. But not me. I’m like whatever animal has really good memories. Elephant? Hippo? Mo Vaughn? It’s one of those. Anyways, the point is… I like to put my money where my mouth is. As far as I have seen, I am the only columnist who grades himself after the season on his ENTIRE list, not just selected ones to make themselves look good.

So with the season closing down, I am going to print my “LOVE / HATE” list from the pre-season. This week my “LOVE” list, next week the “HATE” list and see how I did. The idea of the list was that players I “LOVED” were players that I thought would exceed their expectations. Whether those expectations were two points or 20 points a game.

So here it is. Written on Saturday, October 8th, 2006 here’s the list, completely unedited, for better or worse. The projections I am basing this on are the ones listed in the NBA.com Fantasy Basketball Draft Magazine. And here we go. I am not going to re-write all the projections and all of the final stats – you can look them up yourself if you care. Or you can trust me. Either way, my new comments have a “***” next to them.

I admire what Berry is doing here -- it's clear that these so-called fantasy experts should be held more accountable for what the put down on paper, especially when readers may be relying on this information to make decision come draft day. However, after reading Berry's self-assessment -- 29 'Wins', 17 'Losses', 20 'Pushes', for a 63% win percentage ("Not bad if I do say so myself. Not bad at all." according to Berry), it's clear that's he's been a little liberal on the self-evaluation. Kind of like if you were grading your own mid-term or deciding on your own annual bonus. You're going to make yourself look good.

Now, normally I'd let something like this slide, but the fact that he went on and on about accountability and 'putting his money where his mouth is', combined with the fact that he calls himself 'The Talented Mr. Roto', makes him a prime candidate for further investigation.

Thankfully, TMR clearly lays out his criteria, so we can easily judge how well he actually did. If a player made his 'Guys He Loves' list, Berry expected his numbers to outperform the projections from NBA.com's Preseason Fantasy Draft Guide magazine.

A couple caveats...I obtained the projections from the NBA.com website, but they may have been updated from the original version. But we can safely assume that they are directionally correct (if somebody has the original numbers, please send them to me). Also, only the FG% and FT% numbers were listed, so I had to estimate the FGA and FTA amounts to get a true measure. And the website listed only the top 100 players at each position, so I don't have projections for 6 guys: Smush Parker, Danny Granger, Devin Harris, Kendrick Perkins, Darko Milicic and Etan Thomas. We'll evaluate these on a case-by-case basis.

I'm not sure if was basis his decision with or without turnovers, but I assumed he wasn't counting turnovers. Turnovers weren't mentioned anywhere in the article. Of the 60 players with projections, TMR's recommendation can be called a WIN if the player ranked higher with his actual stats than if he had his projected stats. A LOSS is any player that performed worse than predicted.

TMR tends to label a lot of his recommendations Pushes with the logic that the player performed roughly in-line with projections. However, I would consider these to be losses. Out of the 200+ player predictions, Berry is pulling out 66 players that he believes will exceed the projections, otherwise they wouldn't have made his list in the first place. Even if the player performed right on his projections, Berry's prediction to outperform is incorrect.

So first let's knock out the clear winners and clear losers, 34 players that both Berry and I agree on assessment. PROJ is where the player would've ranked if he had the numbers as projected by nba.com. ACT is the actual rank of the player.

PLAYER	PROJ	ACT	TMR	WEGO
Wallace,Gerald	134	18	WIN	WIN
James,Mike	132	26	WIN	WIN
Pachulia,Zaza	250	106	WIN	WIN
Bell,Raja	125	65	WIN	WIN
Ming,Yao	31	14	WIN	WIN
Kaman,Chris	104	64	WIN	WIN
Odom,Lamar	54	27	WIN	WIN
Bosh,Chris	31	20	WIN	WIN
Cassell,Sam	76	53	WIN	WIN
Ford,T.J.	116	92	WIN	WIN
Nelson,Jameer	90	67	WIN	WIN
Watson,Earl	164	123	WIN	WIN
Ridnour,Luke	79	62	WIN	WIN
Villanueva,Charlie	114	100	WIN	WIN
Kidd,Jason	20	16	WIN	WIN
Claxton,Speedy	115	108	WIN	WIN
Okur,Mehmet	58	49	WIN	WIN
Terry,Jason	37	38	PUSH	PUSH
Warrick,Hakim	88	352	LOSS	LOSS
Marshall,Donyell	21	129	LOSS	LOSS
Swift,Stromile	64	215	LOSS	LOSS
Brown,Kwame	92	241	LOSS	LOSS
Diogu,Ike	134	267	LOSS	LOSS
Jefferson,Al	98	199	LOSS	LOSS
Lafrentz,Raef	73	137	LOSS	LOSS
Jasikevicius,Sarunas	84	161	LOSS	LOSS
Griffin,Eddie	112	221	LOSS	LOSS
Gadzuric,Dan	161	279	LOSS	LOSS
Thomas,Kurt	62	111	LOSS	LOSS
Williams,Deron	97	151	LOSS	LOSS
Crawford,Jamal	64	90	LOSS	LOSS
Chandler,Tyson	104	140	LOSS	LOSS
Daniels,Marquis	114	119	LOSS	LOSS
Smith,Josh	71	72	LOSS	LOSS

Berry was on the mark for picking guys like Gerald Wallace, Mike James, Chris Kaman and Raja Bell, but he missed the mark completely on guys like Donyell Marshall, Stromile Swift, Kwame Brown and others.

So, that's 34 out of the 60 guys that we agree on. So what about the remaining 26? Let's look at those in more detail

BERRY CALLS PUSH, I CALL WIN

Wells,Bonzi	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	43.7%	74.3%	0.60	16.70	4.70	1.80	1.30	0.30	1.90	101
Actual	45.8%	68.4%	0.20	13.45	7.80	2.84	1.86	0.47	2.47	61

TMR Pre: "When he gets playing time, he produces. Guess what he’s gonna get this year?"

TMR Post: "If only he could stay healthy. Push."

My Comment: We'll evaluate solely on the basis on per game numbers first, then see if anybody needs to be re-evaluated due to injuries. Clearly for continually injury-prone players, it should be a factor.

BERRY CALLS PUSH, I CALL LOSS

Wallace,Ben	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	44.7%	44.7%	0.00	9.10	12.90	1.70	1.50	2.70	1.20	50
Actual	51.6%	40.6%	0.00	7.34	11.61	1.96	1.79	2.21	1.04	56

TMR Pre: "I think he adds some offense this year to go along with the blocks, steals, boards and ‘fro."

TMR Post: "Scoring never came, but he was exactly what was projected. Push."

My Comment: Offense didn't come, plus rebounds and blocks were down. Overall, slightly worse than projected.

Hinrich,Kirk	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	39.5%	79.5%	1.90	14.60	3.80	6.50	1.50	0.30	2.40	49
Actual	42.1%	82.5%	1.55	15.63	3.42	6.20	1.17	0.24	2.29	55

TMR Pre: "I’m glad to finally have a reason to love the name Kirk. Becomes an elite PG this year."

TMR Post: "Did what was projected – 15 and 6. Push."

My Comment: Numbers were close, but still lower than projected. Might consider a Push if it weren't for TMR's 'elite PG' comment.

Iguodala,Andre	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	47.3%	75.0%	0.90	12.90	5.90	3.10	1.80	0.60	2.00	39
Actual	49.9%	75.8%	0.68	12.22	5.86	3.03	1.62	0.26	1.88	57

TMR Pre: "Another name from the "all fantasy columnists must pimp" memo."

TMR Post: "12 and 6. Projected and actual. Push."

My Comment: Maybe if fantasy basketball were 2 categories instead of 8, you'd consider this a push (although both PTS and REB were slightly lower than projected as well).

Stoudamire,Salim	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	39.7%	88.3%	1.20	12.00	2.00	3.00	0.50	0.20	2.10	162
Actual	41.3%	90.0%	1.34	9.62	1.90	1.23	0.44	0.05	1.34	204

TMR Pre: "I’ll be damned. The Hawks will be fantasy friendly this year. Meet the new Nick Van Exel - jacking threes like he’s World B. Free."

TMR Post: "He basically did what was projected, which was not a lot. Push."

My Comment: Assists were way down vs. projections.

Mcdyess,Antonio	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	50.6%	64.2%	0.00	9.10	6.20	0.90	0.70	0.70	1.20	147
Actual	50.9%	54.1%	0.00	7.82	5.27	1.06	0.56	0.57	0.92	184

TMR Pre: "For deeper leagues, he’s just a Tech Ejection away."

TMR Post: "See Ben Wallace but put tech ejection in for scoring. Push."

My Comment: McDyess has been decent over the last few weeks but we're evaluating on the entire season.

Mohammed,Nazr	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	48.6%	65.2%	0.00	8.40	6.70	0.40	0.70	0.90	1.30	155
Actual	51.0%	79.7%	0.00	6.29	5.29	0.47	0.25	0.63	1.13	208

TMR Pre: "Remember Rasho Nesterovich? Neither do we."

TMR Post: "What makes the Spurs so good is that they are very consistent. Yet another push."

My Comment: Similar to McDyess...turned it on lately but it wasn't enough to offset the first-half of the season.

Curry,Eddy	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	53.4%	68.9%	0.00	14.40	5.30	0.60	0.30	0.90	2.30	125
Actual	55.9%	63.5%	0.00	13.78	6.10	0.27	0.40	0.76	2.51	167

TMR Post: "Projected at 14 and 5, he is averaging 14 and 6. Push."

My Comment: Curry is one of the most overrated players in fantasy.

Korver,Kyle	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	41.3%	85.3%	2.50	13.80	4.60	2.10	1.10	0.40	1.40	69
Actual	43.4%	84.3%	2.23	11.55	3.35	1.99	0.82	0.32	1.21	91

TMR Pre: "God, he’s dreamy looking. The threes and steals are nice too."

TMR Post: "Luckily, our projections were not as bullish as me. Turns out to be a push."

My Comment: Korver was one of the biggest fantasy disappointments of the year. Didn't even live up to NBA.com's conservative assumptions. Hardly a push.

Williams,Jason	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	40.5%	81.4%	2.00	13.30	3.10	8.40	1.20	0.20	2.00	44
Actual	44.3%	86.5%	1.84	12.39	2.40	4.93	0.93	0.09	1.72	77

TMR Pre: "When you have the Big Daddy in the middle, it means a few things. One, the assists become easier because you get boards easier and can then get out and run. Two, defenses collapse on Big Fella, thus opening up free three point shots. Three, with the Big Diesel behind you, you can be more aggressive with your defense, since, if a guy gets by you, he runs into a brick wall. Hmmm. Assists, threes, steals. Guess what J-Dub does well?"

TMR Post: "Assists were down from projections actually, but steals and three were up. Points were slightly down so call it a push."

My Comment: Maybe this is one example where the original NBA.com projection was lower, because Williams underperformed in STL and 3PM. Even so, it was probably not enough to offset the big drop in AST.

Jackson,Bobby	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	44.7%	82.3%	1.50	13.60	3.50	2.50	0.90	0.10	1.40	97
Actual	38.3%	72.9%	1.81	11.51	3.16	2.76	0.81	0.01	1.40	155

TMR Pre: "I’m more worried about Eddie Jones losing time to him (and Damon moving to the 2) than I am about him taking Damon’s minutes. I’ve always loved Bobby Jackson."

TMR Post: "Had more steals and threes, same points, less assists than projections."

My Comment: What about that big drop in FG% and FT%?

Stoudamire,Damon	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	39.4%	89.5%	1.90	13.80	3.60	6.40	1.00	0.10	2.00	67
Actual	39.7%	85.5%	1.33	11.74	3.52	4.74	0.70	0.04	2.04	111

TMR Pre: "I think he is due for a very big year."

TMR Post: "Injured, sadly. N/A."

My Comment: His numbers were down relative to projections even before factoring in the injury.

Ginobili,Manu	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	47.0%	80.5%	1.20	18.20	4.90	4.00	1.80	0.50	2.50	21
Actual	46.2%	77.5%	1.26	15.13	3.50	3.56	1.56	0.40	1.85	50

TMR Pre: "Manu, welcome to the next level. Next level, I believe you met Manu in the playoffs?"

TMR Post: "Another push."

My Comment: We're still waiting for playoff Manu to show his face during fantasy season. Difficult to call this a push when the numbers are down in EVERY category.

Magloire,Jamaal	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	46.4%	70.2%	0.00	12.00	9.50	1.10	0.50	1.20	2.30	105
Actual	46.5%	53.4%	0.00	9.42	9.61	0.68	0.35	0.97	2.06	212

TMR Pre: "Recipe for sleeper: Former All-Star coming off injury plagued year. Add in lots of time on the bad team and voila! Sleeper. "

TMR Post: "Push."

My Comment: Man, this is getting ugly. Projections say he's the 105th-rated player, he turns out to be the 212nd-rated player. Is this the recipe for a push?.

Howard,Dwight	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	53.2%	70.5%	0.00	16.80	10.60	1.70	1.00	2.00	2.50	24
Actual	52.7%	60.3%	0.00	15.53	12.36	1.57	0.79	1.44	2.65	66

TMR Pre: "This year’s Amare."

TMR Post: "Almost but not quite. Projected for 16 and 10, he is at 15 and 12 with blocks the same. Another push."

My Comment: Agreed, not quite Amare numbers. Not quite projected numbers either.

Stojakovic,Peja	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	46.2%	91.5%	2.60	21.10	5.10	2.10	1.20	0.20	1.60	20
Actual	43.2%	91.4%	2.27	18.06	5.82	1.95	0.62	0.14	1.41	54

TMR Pre: "Will have the year this year that he was supposed to have last year."

TMR Post: "Another push."

My Comment: He played better with Indiana, but I don't think those who drafted him thought they were getting the 54th-rated player.

Artest,Ron	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	44.9%	80.7%	1.10	21.10	5.50	3.90	2.10	0.70	2.70	18
Actual	41.0%	67.7%	1.40	18.13	5.13	3.53	2.26	0.74	2.42	47

TMR Pre: "Only thing I don’t like about him this year is his rap album."

TMR Post: "The suspension and injury makes this a N/A."

My Comment: Like Peja, his numbers were better post-trade, but still down relative to projections. Plus, we can't just throw him out of the equation because of the suspension. He was a known risk, and TMR's recommendation is essentially saying that he's worth the risk. A loss either way.

Hilario,Nene	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	51.5%	64.7%	0.00	10.50	6.10	1.80	1.30	0.80	2.00	102
Actual	0.0%	0.0%	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2.00	451

TMR Pre: "Kenyon Martin. Marcus Camby. Man, I got a finger cramp just writing their names."

TMR Post: "Injured. N/A."

My Comment: Definitely a tough blow and could be considered for removing from the equation. However, TMR is recommending him on the basis of being the anti-Camby or anti-Kenyon, and that certainly wasn't the case this year.

BERRY CALLS WIN, I CALL LOSS

Pietrus,Mickael	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	42.8%	69.7%	0.90	8.40	2.70	1.00	0.70	0.30	1.20	219
Actual	40.9%	60.8%	1.08	9.37	3.14	0.84	0.63	0.20	1.53	253

TMR Pre: "Their toast, their fries and this guy. Three things I like from France."

TMR Post: "Even with the inconsistent PT, he showed why I have always liked him. 10 of 17. "

My Comment: TMR picked the wrong French guy. When most leagues have only 130 or 156 roster positions, recommending the 253rd-rated player when he's a Guard or Forward can't seriously be considered a win, no matter how much you like his game.

Thomas,Kenny	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	46.9%	75.6%	0.00	12.30	8.20	1.90	1.00	0.30	1.90	95
Actual	49.7%	68.4%	0.00	8.96	7.32	1.96	0.87	0.46	1.67	113

TMR Pre: "Their toast, their fries and this guy. Three things I like from France."

TMR Post: "Even with the inconsistent PT, he showed why I have always liked him. 10 of 17. "

My Comment: Thomas was great while Shareef was out (and for a little while after he came back), but he underperformed vs. projections overall.

Krstic,Nenad	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	50.0%	73.0%	0.00	13.50	7.50	1.40	0.40	1.10	1.70	98
Actual	50.1%	70.2%	0.00	13.46	6.33	1.12	0.42	0.82	1.70	116

TMR Pre: "Vowels? We don’t need no stinkin vowels."

TMR Post: "See above (all the Nets have been awesome). Another call I’m kind of proud of."

My Comment: A push at best if you're feeling really generous. All of Nenad's numbers are either at or below projections..

Johnson,Joe	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	44.2%	75.3%	2.50	20.30	5.10	6.20	1.50	0.50	2.50	20
Actual	45.9%	79.0%	1.58	20.30	4.08	6.60	1.29	0.39	3.26	22

TMR Pre: "Know the difference between stats scored in a competitive game and stats scored while getting blown out? None whatsoever."

TMR Post: "Started slow, ended strong."

My Comment: JJ has been great this year, particularly in the second-half, you might consider this a push because the ranking are pretty close, but the numbers are still down slightly from projections.

Miles,Darius	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	47.0%	60.9%	0.10	11.60	4.80	2.20	1.10	1.10	2.30	111
Actual	45.7%	53.7%	0.05	14.13	4.54	1.87	1.05	0.97	2.46	165

TMR Pre: "Dammit, this is the year! It is, too."

TMR Post: "Well, it was his half season. He exceeded or equaled all projections."

My Comment: Let's be honest...he was good for the first 4 1/2 weeks of the season. Points were up overall, everything else was at or below projections.

Davis,Baron	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	39.6%	72.5%	2.50	20.00	3.90	7.50	2.00	0.40	3.00	22
Actual	39.0%	67.5%	1.89	18.06	4.36	9.00	1.68	0.26	2.98	42

TMR Pre: "Because this year I think he stays healthy, that’s why."

TMR Post: "Okay, I was wrong about staying healthy, but for 3/4 of the year, he was crushing. "

My Comment: Even if you ignore the health issue (which is a stretch for a guy like Baron), he was hardly 'crushing' when he was actually in there. He played at the level of a 4th-round pick, and I can guarantee you he was picked well-before that.

Kirilenko,Andrei	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	47.6%	79.5%	0.80	16.50	7.10	2.80	1.90	3.10	2.60	8
Actual	45.9%	69.3%	0.55	15.27	8.11	4.29	1.50	3.18	2.89	15

TMR Pre: "Top 5 player you can get in the second round."

TMR Post: "See Darius Miles."

My Comment: I love Kirilenko as much as the next guy, but he certainly didn't live up to the 8th-best ranking that the nba.com folks were projecting him at, even if you ignore the injury factor. Free throws were a killer.

Mason,Desmond	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	45.5%	78.0%	0.10	14.20	4.20	1.90	0.70	0.30	1.80	141
Actual	39.8%	67.6%	0.02	10.72	4.25	0.94	0.60	0.25	1.58	297

TMR Pre: "See Johnson, Joe. Oh. He’s in the other list. Well, he’s now the #1 option on a bad team. Ooh. I know. See Villaneuva, Charlie."
TMR Post: "Another underrated guy."

My Comment: Shaquille O'Neal and Desmond Mason are the two most important guys in fantasy basketball. The reason? When you see somebody draft Shaq or Desmond, you instantly know that the guy is a chump. An instant indication that he knows nothing about fantasy basketball. Start pestering him with whack trade-offers and hope he bites. So what does that say about our fantasy expert, Mr. Talented Roto? The fact that he listed Desmond Mason is bad, but forgiveable. The fact that the he follows it up by counting this one as a 'WIN' is truly unforgiveable. DESMOND MASON IS THE 297th BEST FANTASY PLAYER IN THE NBA -- meaning you'd be better off if you had Malik Rose, Laron Profit or Bo Outlaw on your team. Just let that soak in for a minute. TMR should hand in his 'fantasy expert' card, shut down operations and refund money to anybody who drafted Mason based on his recommendation.

BERRY CALLS LOSS, I CALL WIN

Not surprisingly, there were none.

THE OTHERS

As mentioned earlier, I didn't have projections on six players, but judging them based on their overall rankings, you can call Smush Parker (70th) and obvious win, Danny Granger (136th) a reluctant win, Devin Harris and Kendrick Perkins (171st and 179th, respectively) pushes, and Darko Milicic (223rd) and Etan Thomas (246th) losses. TMR calls Darko a win. If I get the actual projections, I'll run them through the regular criteria.

So, how does The Talented Mr. Roto stack up? By my count he's 20-43-3, for a winning percentage of 31.7%. Not good. Not good at all.

Another way to look at is this...can we quantify the value of a TMR recommendation? Berry hand-picked about 1/3 of the fanstasy draft pool and said that they would perform better than expectations. So, if TMR is truly a fantasy expert, players with the TMR seal of approval would perform better than projected, on average. Let's look at the weighted average of the players he recommended:

TMR LOVE	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	45.1%	74.4%	0.76	13.13	5.84	2.93	1.02	0.81	1.90	79
Actual	45.7%	72.3%	0.76	12.15	5.48	2.79	0.90	0.67	1.81	95

A TMR recommendation is the equivalent of having the 79th-draft pick and getting the 95th-rated guy in return. Clearly this is not a formula for fantasy success.

Let's compare TMR to a few other projections

COMP1	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	45.3%	74.2%	0.64	12.42	5.45	2.71	0.94	0.78	1.81	90
Actual	46.8%	72.7%	0.67	12.47	5.30	2.60	0.91	0.72	1.72	91

COMP2	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	45.0%	75.5%	0.81	14.26	5.95	2.87	1.00	0.79	2.00	76
Actual	45.8%	75.5%	0.81	13.40	5.45	2.78	0.86	0.66	1.82	85

COMP3	FG%	FT%	3PM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	Rk
Projected	44.3%	75.1%	0.89	14.14	5.62	3.05	1.00	0.68	1.98	80
Actual	45.1%	73.6%	0.86	12.77	5.17	2.71	0.90	0.60	1.77	95

These three comps are what would've happened if you had selected 28% of the draft pool at random. In other words, you would've been just as good or even better off following the draft advice of a monkey instead of the heeding the advice of TMR's column this season. As Berry said, 'you are only as good as your prognostications.'

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