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Mr. Roto, Part Two

4/17/2006

My badgering was enough to get a rise out of Talented Mr. Roto, as he mentioned me in his April 16th follow-up column looking at his 'Guys I Hate' column. He didn't really say anything to refute my stance that he did a poor job, but he did provide a little more clarification about how he was judging himself.

It’s based on season totals, not per game averages and it is based on the standard eight rotisserie categories. If a guy was above projections in 5 or more of 8 categories, he was a win. 3 or less, he was a loss. I don’t pay attention to the reason I wrote. First, most of them are jokes and do you really care if a guy goes nuts because another guy on his team got injured or because he got traded? We care only about numbers and if you are going to penalize me for the fact that my one line quips were not exactly right as to why a guy exceeded or did not (as you’ll see below) then… I don’t know. You’re nuts. Find yourself a new fantasy columnist.

I also used common sense in what the worth of a player is. If T.J Ford didn’t surpass his blocks projections, who cares? The number were negligible. In other words, no turnovers. You can’t predict injury of course so a “LOVE” player that went down I took a pass on, like Miles. Specifically, guys like Mason, Darko, Pietrus and Miles DID exceed their projected season totals.

First of all, counting categories is a little too simplistic. The amount that is above or below expectations is extremely important and needs to be accounted for. The ranking criteria that I used in my last posting accounts for this. Also, Berry says he's evaluating based on season totals. I didn't have the games played projections for each player, so was forced to evaluate on per game averages. This also creates some sticky situations in Berry's assessment when accounting for injuries. For example, he's ignoring or discounting the injuries to boost his case for some guys (Baron Davis, Darius Miles, Yao Ming, Ron Artest, Andrei Kirilenko, Nene) but uses injuries at least partially to take credit for others (Amare, Marcus Camby and Bobby Sura). A consistent approach needs to be taken in both cases.

And that's exactly what I've done. I've evaluated his picks based on rankings versus expectations using per game averages, so the impact of injuries is ignored in both cases. It is all about the numbers. If I had the projected games information, I could evaluate him on total stats as well.

So without getting into the line-by-line detail, here's how his 'Guys I Hate' list stacks up.

PLAYER PROJ ACT TMR WEGO
Stoudemire,Amare 26 237 WIN WIN
Tinsley,Jamaal 58 153 WIN WIN
Rose,Jalen 76 174 WIN WIN
Jaric,Marko 51 134 WIN WIN
Hill,Grant 30 98 WIN WIN
Webster,Martell 138 283 WIN WIN
Prince,Tayshaun 42 105 WIN WIN
Van Horn,Keith 91 182 WIN WIN
Finley,Michael 92 178 WIN WIN
Livingston,Shaun 95 173 WIN WIN
Anderson,Derek 110 193 WIN WIN
Duncan,Tim 20 37 WIN WIN
Wright,Lorenzen 133 226 WIN WIN
Dampier,Erick 105 169 WIN WIN
Walker,Antoine 82 121 WIN WIN
Bogut,Andrew 80 113 WIN WIN
O'Neal,Shaquille 61 91 WIN WIN
Thomas,Tim 117 164 WIN WIN
Haywood,Brendan 139 179 WIN WIN
Dunleavy,Mike 100 126 WIN WIN
Olowokandi,Michael 213 252 WIN WIN
Simmons,Bobby 71 82 WIN WIN
Jones,Eddie 65 73 WIN WIN
Jackson,Stephen 62 83 PUSH WIN
Hamilton,Richard 71 63 PUSH LOSS
Wallace,Rasheed 51 31 PUSH LOSS
Camby,Marcus 34 12 PUSH LOSS
Brown,P.J. 72 122 LOSS WIN
Harrington,Al 102 76 LOSS LOSS
Webber,Chris 67 34 LOSS LOSS
Banks,Marcus 234 145 LOSS LOSS
Knight,Brevin 92 45 LOSS LOSS
Butler,Caron 88 39 LOSS LOSS
Peterson,Morris 104 58 LOSS LOSS
Anthony,Carmelo 76 25 LOSS LOSS

Not much disagreement between TMR and me. Rasheed Wallace is probably the only glaring error on his list. Overall, TMR gives himself a 25-8 record and I have him at 25-10.

So what's the value of a TMR 'Guys I Hate' label? On average, here's how those 35 players performed versus expectations.

TMR HATE FG% FT% 3PM PTS REB AST STL BLK TO Rk
Projected 45.0% 74.1% 0.70 13.88 5.90 2.82 1.00 0.75 1.93 82
Actual 45.0% 73.2% 0.69 12.78 5.35 2.50 0.91 0.64 1.72 100

The typical TMR Hate Lister performed about 18 slots lower than his NBA.com projection. Pretty good job by TMR here. However, picking out underperformers is a lot easier than picking outperformers. There's a bunch of low-hanging fruit (Shaq, Antoine Walker, Grant Hill, Tinsley, Keith Van Horn). I pulled out my old draft spreadsheet from October 2005 and looked at the 35 guys that I had projected to most underperform their NBA.com projections, and here's how my list did:

Wins (32): Marshall,Donyell; Abdur-rahim,Shareef; Brown,Kwame Hill,Grant; Prince,Tayshaun; Smith,J.r.; Artest,Ron; Van Horn,Keith; Barry,Brent; Finley,Michael; Nesterovic,Rasho; Howard,Dwight; Jasikevicius,Sarunas; Telfair,Sebastian; Ginobili,Manu; Ratliff,Theo; Anderson,Derek; Brezec,Primoz; May,Sean; Walker,Antoine; Bogut,Andrew; O'neal,Shaquille; Williams,Jason; Felton,Raymond; Stackhouse,Jerry; Wesley,David; Johnson,Joe; Krstic,Nenad; Thomas,Kenny; Stoudamire,Salim; Foster,Jeff; Boykins,Earl

LOSSES (3): Okur,Mehmet; Fisher,Derek; Turkoglu,Hedo

On average, here's how a guy on the Wegoblogger hate list performed:

WEGO HATE FG% FT% 3PM PTS REB AST STL BLK TO Rk
Projected 45.6% 75.5% 0.82 13.81 5.83 3.03 0.97 0.70 1.88 77
Actual 45.6% 72.8% 0.80 11.50 4.79 2.34 0.76 0.48 1.61 115

Wego Hate Listers performed 38 slots worse than projected by nba.com. Not tooting my own horn, just showing how easy it is to pick the underperformers. The next 7 guys on my list (Peja, David Harrison, Marko Jaric, Jason Terry, Marbury, Deron Williams, Voshon Lenard) would all be considered wins as well. 39-3 from some random dude with a blog.

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