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NBA Player Projections (Oct 4 Update)

10/04/2006

I've updated my player rankings at the link below. Also, here's an overview on the top 20-25 biggest winners and losers in projected stats relative to their 2005-06 numbers, using my player ranking system.

http://home.comcast.net/~jcolton31/nba200607.html

[Note: the projections page lists the players by the projected ranking for 9-category yahoo leagues (with turnovers). The rankings below are based on the 8-category CBS leagues (no turnovers), which is where I play. The message is basically the same regardless of format.]

INCREASE:

INCREASE 2006 RK 2005 RK Change Comment
Milicic,Darko 9.71 104 5.02 243 4.69 Huge lift post-trade (Orlando stats rank him 147th). Should jump again as he gets more minutes.
Gomes,Ryan 9.84 99 5.78 207 4.06 Worth a late-round flyer. Top 100 in 2nd half last year. Still has to battle slimmed-down Al Jefferson.
Wilcox,Chris 10.98 78 6.93 160 4.06 Another post-trade lift. Starts w/ SEA last year would rank him 50th
Diogu,Ike 8.20 134 5.09 238 3.10 Might be worth a late-round flyer
Felton,Raymond 12.03 59 9.17 102 2.85 I think MJ is handing him the keys. Last 27 starts would rank him 42nd. Still had low FG% and Brevin's still on the roster
Mohammed,Nazr 8.29 132 5.63 217 2.67 Big boost in role w/ Detroit. Still probably not fantasy worthy.
Jack,Jarrett 7.54 152 5.04 242 2.50 Could go even higher. Top 120 if he gets 30+ minutes.
Granger,Danny 9.83 102 7.55 142 2.28 Would've been bigger boost w/o Harrington, but will likely see nice 2nd year boost in production.
Smith,Josh 13.32 35 11.16 69 2.15 Huge 2nd half last year. Play over last 33 games would rank him 20th. 35th may be conservative.
Williams,Marvin 7.80 144 5.66 214 2.14 Granger's loss is his gain. Could jump even higher but don't bet the farm. Amazingly low assists (1.5 per 48 minutes).
Williams,Deron 9.73 103 7.70 137 2.03 Ranking consistent w/ how he played in starts last year. Could go higher.
Marbury,Stephon 12.21 54 10.27 86 1.93 Can't be as bad as last year, can he? At minimum, Isiah increases pace compared to Larry Brown
Perkins,Kendrick 8.50 127 6.64 169 1.86 2nd half last year would rank him 113, so maybe this is too conservative
Swift,Stromile 7.14 168 5.60 219 1.55 Might be productive while Gasol is out, but the streets are littered with guys who had their fantasy hopes crushed by Stro
Howard,Dwight 12.52 47 11.01 71 1.51 Further career development. Still not worth a 2nd (or 3rd) round pick because of FT%
Wilkins,Damien 7.10 171 5.61 218 1.49 Productive when he gets the minutes. Should be in the SEA rotation
Chandler,Tyson 8.91 119 7.47 145 1.45 Not a huge Tyson fan after watching him languish w/ the Bulls, but a change of scenery will likely do his some good. Playing with Paul seems like a good fit.
Nelson,Jameer 12.82 44 11.41 64 1.41 Might be conservative…last 36 games would rank him 29th.
Paul,Chris 17.07 11 15.81 17 1.27 Further career development puts him on the cusp of the fantasy elite.
Villanueva,Charlie 10.63 83 9.40 98 1.23 Should benefit from trade to Milwaukee. Will probably go too early due to nice PTS, REB
Bosh,Chris 16.44 15 15.25 21 1.18 Developing into a mini-Garnett. Solid across the board. Most are expecting big things w/ boost from TJ Ford
Radmanovic,Vladimir 9.84 100 8.70 110 1.14 Should have increased role, more minutes w/ Lakers
Claxton,Speedy 9.86 98 8.76 107 1.10 Fantasy worthy even as a back-up last year…numbers should improve w/ starting role. Broken finger though.
Harris,Devin 7.68 147 6.64 170 1.04 Further career development, should see more minutes if Terry plays more SG
Livingston,Shaun 7.46 154 6.44 176 1.02 Further career development, still not fantasy worthy as long as Cassell's around

DECREASE:

DECREASE 2006 RK 2005 RK Change Comment
James,Mike 12.24 52 14.25 25 -2.01 Crowded backcourt w/ Foye, Ricky Davis. Last year was career year.
Wesley,David 5.65 240 7.58 141 -1.94 New team, probably reduced role
Fisher,Derek 9.13 113 10.81 74 -1.68 New team, probably reduced role
Jaric,Marko 6.43 195 7.82 130 -1.39 Odd-man out in Minnesota. Rightfully so.
Gasol,Pau 12.50 48 13.75 28 -1.25 Expect him to come back slowly
Marion,Shawn 20.14 4 21.32 1 -1.19 Slight-dip, change in category mix due to Amare. Still a fantasy stud.
Nash,Steve 16.90 12 18.08 10 -1.18 Minutes take a slight dip due to Banks
Wells,Bonzi 10.34 88 11.51 62 -1.17 New team, hard to say how many minutes he'll get
Head,Luther 6.70 186 7.78 132 -1.08 Odd-man out in Houston (Battier, Bonzi)
Buckner,Greg 6.75 183 7.80 131 -1.06 New team. Even if I'm wrong, still barely fantasy viable
Williams,Jason 9.41 108 10.43 80 -1.02 Slowing down
Camby,Marcus 15.34 18 16.30 14 -0.96 Career year last year, declined in the 2nd half of season
Knight,Brevin 11.61 67 12.55 44 -0.93 I think it's Felton's team
Iverson,Allen 17.15 10 18.08 9 -0.93 He's gotta start breaking down at some point, right? Still a fantasy stud.
Duhon,Chris 7.93 139 8.80 106 -0.87 I expect Gordon/Hinrich to take increased role. Thabo will play too.
Banks,Marcus 7.18 165 8.05 123 -0.86 Reduced to back-up role
Croshere,Austin 6.93 175 7.72 136 -0.79 Backing-up Dirk means less minutes to backing-up Jermaine
Abdur-rahim,Shareef 8.56 125 9.33 101 -0.77 How the mighty have fallen (riding pine behind Kenny Thomas?). Keep a close eye though.
Jones,Jumaine 6.88 179 7.64 139 -0.77 Could be good in Phoenix. Crowded bench though.
West,Delonte 11.64 66 12.41 46 -0.76 I love Delonte but Telfair's gotta hurt his value.

1 comments:

  1. Anonymous said...:

    Great Analysis!

 
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