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Final Projection Update

11/02/2006

The 2006-07 NBA season is finally here! I finally had time to update the projections that I talked about in my previous post, the Power of the Preseason. As you'll recall, I'm creating three sets of projections and we will see how they hold up over the course of the season. The preseason data on basketballmonster was incomplete, but I was able to get full preseason stats from CBS Sportsline.

1. Baseline Projections as Oct 24, 2006. My original projections with no preseason adjustments.
2. Projections w/ player preseason adjustments.
3. Projections w/ player preseason adjustments and global adjustments.

The global adjustments are an interesting animal, in that they try to use the aggregate preseason data to predict changes in scoring, shooting, etc. for the upcoming season. Here's my predicted change compared to 2005 now that I have the complete set of preseason info.

GM  05REG 06PRED CHANGE
 MIN 4848 -
 FGM 7.12 7.23 1.52%
 FGA 15.70 15.77 0.46%
 3PM 1.14 1.19 4.12%
 3PA 3.18 3.39 6.62%
 FTM 3.90 4.02 3.10%
 FTA 5.23 5.36 2.55%
 REB 8.14 8.18 0.50%
 AST 4.10 4.18 1.93%
 STL 1.42 1.42 -0.19%
 BLK 0.93 0.91 -3.03%
 TO 2.74 2.85 4.21%
 PTS 19.28 19.66 1.95%
 2PM 5.99 6.05 1.02%
 2PA 12.52 12.42 -0.83%
 FG% 0.454 0.458 0.94%
 FT% 0.745 0.749 0.52%
 3P% 0.358 0.350 -2.21%
 2P% 0.478 0.487 1.88%

Here's an example of what all this means...check out the change in projections for Zach Randolph, who had a very good preseason.

 Randolph,ZachGP MinFGAFG%3M FTAFT%REBAS STBKTOPTS
 Original 71  34.52   16.59  0.445  0.22  4.75  0.738   8.34  1.91  0.80  0.22  1.90   18.50 
 Pre 6  35.17   14.67  0.500  0.17  9.83  0.881   7.17  2.33  1.33  0.00  3.33   23.50 
 Adjusted 71  34.52   16.46  0.450  0.22  5.00  0.750   8.26  1.95  0.82  0.20  1.95   18.78 
 Global 71  34.52   16.38  0.457  0.23  5.12  0.754   8.30  1.98  0.82  0.20  2.03   19.07 

At the end of the season, we'll see which one is closer for Zach and the rest of the NBA. In the meantime, I plan on using the third set of projections for managing my fantasy basketball teams. If you were following along last year, you know my buddy Marc Fredman & I went in on six teams on CBS Sportsline, won five of them and got a check for $3,000. This year, I'm stepping up my game. Let's just say they number of teams is in the double digits...and the first digit starts with 4. More info on that soon. I still have a few live drafts to knock out. Stay tuned!

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