Power of the Preseason

I have to admit, I haven't really been following the NBA preseason. I glance at the boxscores, but haven't used much, if any, of that information in my projections for the upcoming season. Maybe it's because I got caught up in the hype around James Jones last season and got burned:

Jones,James	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS
2005-06 Pre	7	31.29	12.43	0.460	3.14	1.57	0.909	4.00	1.86	0.71	0.71	16.00
2005-06 Reg	75	23.56	7.75	0.418	1.47	1.61	0.851	3.37	0.76	0.51	0.65	9.32

Call it the James Jones corollary. We all have fantasy basketball baggage. It's like the girl who dumped you in 7th grade and broke your heart -- you're scarred for life. Even if that player's name hits the top of your draft queue, you can't help but think of how your fantasy hopes went down the drain because of them three years ago. Corey Maggette, Stromile Swift, Steve Francis. You get the picture. That's how I've been treating the preseason stats this year.

But maybe I'm missing the boat. Maybe there's a sleeper out there posting good preseason numbers and I'm not paying attention. The problem is, how do you know? Baron Davis looks pretty darn good this year, to the point where he's looking like he might get back to top 20 status. Heck, he's shooting 91% from the free-throw line! Then I checked out basketballmonster.com and it shows that Baron was the best preseason player last year too, shooting 85% from the stripe in 5 games. He ended up shooting 67.5% for the season and ranking about 40th overall.

So how do you know what preseason stats to rely on, and what to dismiss? I don't know. Gut check, I guess. But can we do an analysis to determine if preseason stats provide information in general? If you've learned anything from reading this blog, than you already know the answer to that question. Have spreadsheet, will travel.

With all of the hoopla about the new ball, one thing I realized is that the aggregate preseason data can be a decent predictor of what's going to happen globally in the regular season. You know that shooting is going to be down and turnovers are going to be up in the preseason, but can year over year changes in the preseason data tell us what's going to happen during the regular season? I think so. Basketballmonster has full preseason stats for 2003-04 and 2005-06. Here is how they compare to the regular season on a per 48 minutes basis:

GM	03PRE	03REG	05PRE	05REG	03REG/PRE	05REG/PRE
MIN	48.00	48.00	48.00	48.00	-	-
FGM	6.58	7.04	6.73	7.12	7.1%	5.8%
FGA	15.24	16.01	15.23	15.70	5.0%	3.1%
3PM	0.84	1.06	1.00	1.14	25.9%	13.9%
3PA	2.50	3.03	2.89	3.18	21.2%	10.0%
FTM	4.08	3.68	4.43	3.90	-9.7%	-11.9%
FTA	5.59	4.90	6.06	5.23	-12.3%	-13.7%
REB	8.23	8.47	8.08	8.14	2.9%	0.7%
AST	3.91	4.23	4.02	4.10	8.2%	1.9%
STL	1.85	1.58	1.78	1.42	-14.3%	-19.8%
BLK	0.98	1.02	0.94	0.93	4.6%	-0.7%
TO	3.56	2.84	3.48	2.74	-20.1%	-21.3%
PTS	18.07	18.82	18.89	19.28	4.2%	2.1%
2PM	5.74	5.99	5.73	5.99	4.3%	4.4%
2PA	12.74	12.98	12.35	12.52	1.9%	1.4%
FG%	0.432	0.440	0.442	0.454	1.9%	2.7%
FT%	0.729	0.752	0.731	0.745	3.0%	2.0%
3P%	0.335	0.348	0.346	0.358	3.9%	3.5%
2P%	0.450	0.461	0.464	0.478	2.4%	2.9%

You can see the change from preseason to regular season is very consistent for many categories. You can also see clearly how shooting improves and turnovers decrease (by 20%!) as the real season starts as expected.

So what does that mean for 2006-07. From the initial preseason data, it looks like turnovers could be an issue with the new ball, as many players have predicted. Any downturn in shooting and scoring will likely be more than offset by an increase in pace as more teams aim to be more like the Suns. Get ready for some high-scoring affairs.

I used the average regular season to preseason change from the two years above to come up with predicted numbers for the upcoming season (06PRED). Because we don't yet have a full preseason of data, I normalized the numbers to bring them closer to the 2005-06 regular season data (06ADJ). Here's what it shows:

GM	05PRE	06PRE	O6PRED	06ADJ	05REG	06CHANGE
MIN	48.00	48.00	48.00	48.00	48.00	-
FGM	6.73	7.07	7.54	7.33	7.12	2.9%
FGA	15.23	15.70	16.34	16.02	15.70	2.0%
3PM	1.00	1.05	1.26	1.20	1.14	5.4%
3PA	2.89	3.16	3.65	3.41	3.18	7.5%
FTM	4.43	4.79	4.27	4.08	3.90	4.8%
FTA	6.06	6.50	5.66	5.44	5.23	4.1%
REB	8.08	8.24	8.39	8.27	8.14	1.5%
AST	4.02	4.18	4.40	4.25	4.10	3.6%
STL	1.78	1.76	1.46	1.44	1.42	1.3%
BLK	0.94	0.90	0.92	0.93	0.93	-0.8%
TO	3.48	3.93	3.11	2.93	2.74	6.9%
PTS	18.89	19.97	20.60	19.94	19.28	3.4%
2PM	5.73	6.01	6.28	6.13	5.99	2.4%
2PA	12.35	12.54	12.75	12.64	12.52	0.9%
FG%	0.442	0.450	0.460	0.457	0.454	0.7%
FT%	0.731	0.737	0.755	0.750	0.745	0.7%
3P%	0.346	0.333	0.345	0.352	0.358	-1.8%
2P%	0.464	0.479	0.492	0.485	0.478	1.5%

Turnovers, scoring and three-point attempts are up significantly. If you noticed anything from the playoffs last year, it was the inordinate amount of free throws (led by Dwyane Wade). That trend seems to continue, as officials are calling the game more closely (not shown above, but fouls/48 are up 5.5% this preseason over last).

That's all fine and good, but how does that information help my fantasy team? To be honest, I'm not sure. You could try to make global adjustments to account for these changes in each category, but that might not had much affect on your overall player rankings. It's worth testing out, which is what I plan to do. More on that later...let's see what we can do on individual player projections.

Getting back to Baron (sounds like an name of the Fray's next album). Do his preseason numbers provide any information for what's going to happen in the upcoming season? Hard to say. But on average, it does look like the preseason numbers do have some value. Let's recall my recent comparison of 2005-06 stat projections. For comparison purposes, I used the 2004-05 numbers as the baseline prediction and created an index where 100 = simply using 2004-05 numbers to predict actual 2005-06 results. Below 100 meant you did better than the baseline. Surprisingly, a couple sites did worse on average than this most basic bogey.

What if we created another prediction that was based on the 2004-05 numbers PLUS the next season's preseason data? Let's call it 2004+PRE. First, I adjusted the raw preseason data because we know that shooting's going to go up, turnover's down, etc. Second, I looked at per 48 minute production, so the minutes were kept constant to the previous season. And third, I only weighted the preseason numbers by the number of games played. The 2004-05 data was given a weight of 82 games across the board. So if a guy played in 8 preseason games, his new prediction would be 82/90ths his 2004-05 production and 8/90ths his preseason production. Here are the results.

_CAT_	_200405_	_2004+PRE_	_Monster_	_WEGO_
Min	100.0	100.0	91.6	90.9
FGM	100.0	98.4	93.2	93.1
FGA	100.0	99.0	93.8	93.2
FG%	100.0	98.7	97.0	92.9
3M	100.0	96.6	94.2	87.5
3A	100.0	97.7	98.2	91.5
3P%	100.0	100.2	103.5	85.8
FTM	100.0	97.8	104.5	97.7
FTA	100.0	97.4	103.0	93.7
FT%	100.0	98.4	96.8	95.3
REB	100.0	99.2	99.1	100.7
AS	100.0	97.8	92.4	84.4
ST	100.0	99.1	100.0	97.5
BK	100.0	97.6	108.0	111.0
TO	100.0	98.4	107.0	90.6
PTS	100.0	98.7	93.7	93.5
TOTAL	100.0	98.4	98.5	93.7

I showed Basketball Monster's and my predictions from last year for context. Surprisingly to me, the preseason numbers to hold some informational value (and a 1% difference can be the thin line between winning and losing your fantasy league). Of course, they are hindered by the fact that it keeps the prior year minutes constant. The minutes is where BBM and I really shine, since it's easy to embed changes in roles/teams in the minute projections. So that leads me to my next question. What if we added the preseason data on top of my original projections...would they provide even greater accuracy? Let's create a 'WEGO+PRE' using the same methodology:

_CAT_	_200405_	_2004+PRE_	_Monster_	_WEGO_	_WEGO+PRE_
Min	100.0	100.0	91.6	90.9	90.9
FGM	100.0	98.4	93.2	93.1	91.4
FGA	100.0	99.0	93.8	93.2	92.9
FG%	100.0	98.7	97.0	92.9	92.2
3M	100.0	96.6	94.2	87.5	86.1
3A	100.0	97.7	98.2	91.5	90.9
3P%	100.0	100.2	103.5	85.8	87.0
FTM	100.0	97.8	104.5	97.7	96.1
FTA	100.0	97.4	103.0	93.7	91.8
FT%	100.0	98.4	96.8	95.3	94.0
REB	100.0	99.2	99.1	100.7	99.9
AS	100.0	97.8	92.4	84.4	83.4
ST	100.0	99.1	100.0	97.5	96.9
BK	100.0	97.6	108.0	111.0	109.6
TO	100.0	98.4	107.0	90.6	88.2
PTS	100.0	98.7	93.7	93.5	92.0
TOTAL	100.0	98.4	98.5	93.7	92.7

Not bad...it's shaves another percentage point off. Blocks are still horrible, but this is something that might've been saved with a global adjustment. I'll do that eventually, but right now I need to go back and adjust my player projections before my live drafts tonight! But for testing purposes, I'll create three sets of projections:

1. Baseline Projections as Oct 24, 2006. Same ones that I posted a few days ago. No preseason adjustments.
2. Projections w/ player preseason adjustments.
3. Projections w/ player preseason adjustments and global adjustments.


At the end of the year, we'll see which one holds up the best. And that will help me determine how to use the preseason numbers in the future. It just might help you win your fantasy league. Stay tuned.

The Wegoblogger / Talented Mr Roto NBA Projection Challenge

It’s a hard job, but somebody’s gotta do it. Seems like there are hundreds of so-called fantasy basketball ‘experts’ out there, yet it’s hard to know who’s credible and who’s full of Manute Bol. Somebody’s gotta call these guys out on the carpet when they step out of line, especially when they’re somebody who’s getting paid (or worse, forcing you to pay) for their sage advice.

You can see what I mean if you look at my analysis of different stat projections for the 2005-06 season. Sites like Rotowire.com and CBS Sportsline performed worse than if did nothing but just used the 2004-05 season -- the most basic approach you could think of. Even a monkey could do that. If you followed Rotowire or CBS last year, you most assuredly lost because of it. And worse yet, Rotowire charges $9.99 for this misinformation (or $14.99 as part of yahoo’s draft kit). What a joke.

It was none other than yours truly who called out The Talented Mr. Roto last year on his season-ending review of his ‘signature’ Guys I Love/Guys I Hate list, to the point he even mentioned me by name in his follow-up column. I don’t really have a personal vendetta against Matthew Berry, but given the fact that a) he’s calls himself The Talented Mr. Roto, b) he charges for his expert opinions, and c) he prefaced his column with a holier-than-thou overview (see below), he set himself up as a target.

“When you are an “Expert” – that is to say, when you are paid for your writing and predictions – especially in fantasy sports, you are only as good as your prognostications. Every year, no matter what the sport, I see folks put out their sleeper lists, their busts lists, their projections and rankings.

Then the season ends and everyone forgets. But not me. I’m like whatever animal has really good memories. Elephant? Hippo? Mo Vaughn? It’s one of those. Anyways, the point is… I like to put my money where my mouth is. As far as I have seen, I am the only columnist who grades himself after the season on his ENTIRE list, not just selected ones to make themselves look good.

So with the season closing down, I am going to print my “LOVE / HATE” list from the pre-season. This week my “LOVE” list, next week the “HATE” list and see how I did. The idea of the list was that players I “LOVED” were players that I thought would exceed their expectations. Whether those expectations were two points or 20 points a game.

So here it is. Written on Saturday, October 8th, 2006 here’s the list, completely unedited, for better or worse. The projections I am basing this on are the ones listed in the NBA.com Fantasy Basketball Draft Magazine. And here we go. I am not going to re-write all the projections and all of the final stats – you can look them up yourself if you care. Or you can trust me. “

Great concept. I’m all for it. Every fantasy columnist should hold themselves up to this standard. But then Mr. Roto tops it off by grading himself like a MBA student at Northwestern (ie, show up and you get an A. If you haven’t figured it out, I went to the University of Chicago). The icing on the cake was Desmond Mason, who he recommended and called a Win. My analysis of the best (and worst) fantasy basketball seasons of all time showed the Mason’s 2005-06 season was the 2nd worst of any player relative to league averages since 1979 (second only to Rony Seikaly in 1988-89)! And he calls this a win. In his column, he calls Mason ‘underrated’. Does that mean that people were expecting him to perform even worse than Seikaly?

So needless to say, I was very eager to get my hands on Berry’s 2006-07 Guys I Love/Guys I Hate column. I even shelled out $9.99 for his draft kit. For the most part, I agree with his analysis. Not a ton of surprises. However, check out his preface:

“This is my version of a sleeper / bust list, but with a twist. Players I love are players that I think exceed general expectations, whatever those expectations are. Players who I hate are players that I think fall below expectations, whatever they are.”

You can’t get much fuzzier than that. Given the fact that he’ll likely write another end of the season ‘How’d I Do?’ column, he’s leaving himself a lot of wiggle room. Last year, he used the NBA.com fantasy magazine as his basis of comparison, which is probably what he’ll do this year. As it turns out, the NBA.com projections (which you can get for free if you can find them) are largely the same (if not identical) to the projections he sells on his site.

The problem with the projections is that they don’t jive with his recommendations. Josh Smith is a ‘Guy I Love’. Not a big surprise. Everyone is expecting him to blow-up this year. But in his projections, he actually has him performing worse than last season! How is that possible? And I guarantee you that once Josh Smith performs at a level everyone expects him to, he’ll the first to say ‘I told you so...look how well he performed against these NBA.com (i.e. his) projections.’ Ditto Chris Bosh. He was ranked 19th last season. His projections have him going down to 29th, yet he’s another ‘Guy I Love’.

So if you shelled out $9.99 you have to ask yourself, ‘Why the disconnect? Why am I paying for conflicting information?' Thankfully they have a money-back guarantee.

Since I’m all for TMR’s one-man mission for accountability, I propose a little challenge. Let’s compare the projections that he sells on his site to mine that you can get for free here. I’m not afraid to stick my neck out on the line. There are about 270 players that were projected on both sites. Limiting it to only players that were top 140 on either of the list (the fantasy-viable population), I highlighted the 40 players where we had the biggest difference (based on my rating methodology for standard 8-cat roto leagues -- TMR didn’t include TO’s in their projections). At the end of the season, we’ll see who’s closer.

WEGOBLOGGER HIGHER

CHRIS BOSH (2005-06 Rk: 19; TMR Proj Rk: 29; Wegoblogger Proj Rk: 16)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	70.0	39.19	15.53	0.505	0.00	8.30	0.814	9.24	2.59	0.71	1.13	22.44	14.95	19
TMR	73.5	37.62	13.76	0.492	0.02	7.16	0.792	8.87	2.16	0.78	1.25	19.23	13.27	29
WEGO	75.0	39.37	15.57	0.500	0.07	8.36	0.815	9.29	2.58	0.73	1.16	22.46	15.17	16

As I mentioned earlier, Bosh was on TMR’s Guys I Love list despite projecting a big drop compared to last year. Everyone else, myself included, is expecting an uptick in production with Toronto’s uptempo offense and Bosh clearly being ‘the Man’ for the Raptors. Only this lingering plantar fasciitis can save TMR here.

RANDY FOYE (TMR: 209, Wego: 134)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
TMR	75.0	28.00	7.25	0.500	0.75	2.75	0.727	2.50	1.30	0.40	0.20	10.00	6.03	209
WEGO	78.0	28.15	10.05	0.446	1.10	3.49	0.778	3.33	2.08	0.84	0.26	12.78	8.27	134

Foye may be the odd-man out with Ricky Davis and Mike James around, but I do expect him to be productive when he is playing. Amazingly, TMR is projecting very low production despite roughly the same amount of minutes. 1.3 assists and 0.4 steals just doesn’t seem to pass the common sense test, does it?

KEVIN MARTIN (2005: 116; TMR: 177, Wego: 119)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	72.0	26.42	7.58	0.480	0.92	3.08	0.847	3.63	1.35	0.76	0.13	10.81	8.22	116
TMR	63.4	29.00	7.75	0.443	0.70	3.34	0.766	3.76	1.41	0.89	0.16	10.13	7.00	177
WEGO	74.0	29.48	8.46	0.476	1.04	3.54	0.835	4.08	1.49	0.85	0.15	12.05	9.06	119

As far as I know, the starting SG slot for the Kings is all Martin’s. He averaged 13.71 pts in 33.5 minutes as a starter last season, with great percentages across the board. I know he has a funky shot, but I’m not sure why TMR is projecting such dramatic decreases in his percentages. If anything, my numbers are conservative. I think I’m going to go pick Martin off the waiver wire now.

JASON RICHARDSON (2005: 31; TMR: 69; Wego: 31)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	75.0	38.36	19.17	0.446	2.44	5.47	0.673	5.84	3.09	1.29	0.49	23.21	13.16	31
TMR	73.0	33.00	16.22	0.445	1.77	4.40	0.679	5.19	2.83	1.13	0.42	19.18	11.04	69
WEGO	76.1	37.99	18.82	0.449	2.24	5.53	0.680	5.86	3.24	1.27	0.48	22.89	13.05	34

I’m not a huge fan of Richardson. I don’t think I’ve ever owned him on any team. However, he has improved every year. I know he’s got some knee issues, but I don’t think a drop to #69 is warranted.

LUKE RIDNOUR (2005: 62; TMR: 132; Wego: 75)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	79.0	33.27	10.11	0.418	0.54	2.87	0.877	2.97	6.96	1.56	0.28	11.52	11.25	62
TMR	78.3	27.00	8.15	0.414	0.54	2.16	0.871	2.38	5.26	1.20	0.22	9.17	8.72	132
WEGO	79.0	31.94	9.64	0.419	0.55	2.70	0.874	2.86	6.55	1.44	0.26	10.98	10.60	75

Even if Earl Watson cuts into his playing time and production, I don’t think he drops to #132. Last year, Ridnour was actually better down the stretch with Watson on board.

JOSH SMITH (2005: 70; TMR: 72; Wego: 34)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	80.0	31.99	9.68	0.425	0.43	3.65	0.719	6.64	2.39	0.80	2.60	11.28	10.92	70
TMR	80.0	31.15	9.58	0.437	0.32	3.69	0.707	6.87	2.24	0.85	2.48	11.29	10.88	72
WEGO	78.0	35.38	10.79	0.443	0.27	4.23	0.720	7.48	3.10	0.91	2.90	12.88	12.69	39

As I mentioned, another TMR ‘Guy I Love’. But why the projected decrease over last season? It baffles me. If anything, my #34 ranking may be conservative. It all depends whether he can put two good halves together.

JAMAL CRAWFORD (2005: 90; TMR: 164; Wego: 112)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	79.0	32.37	11.09	0.417	1.28	4.52	0.826	3.13	3.80	1.09	0.19	14.25	9.85	90
TMR	76.9	24.00	9.11	0.406	1.20	2.81	0.830	2.22	2.90	0.84	0.16	10.93	7.45	164
WEGO	76.3	30.50	10.57	0.414	1.30	3.92	0.829	2.84	3.63	1.03	0.16	13.30	9.26	112

I know the backcourt is crowded in New York. As of now, it looks like Jalen Rose is the odd man out. I’m not a fan of Crawford at all, but I think Isiah increases the total size of the fantasy pie versus Larry Brown, even if Crawford gets a diminished slice.

CARON BUTLER (2005: 34; TMR: 60; Wego: 35)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	75.0	36.03	14.48	0.455	0.55	4.43	0.870	6.20	2.48	1.69	0.24	17.57	12.92	34
TMR	74.5	34.99	13.23	0.443	0.47	4.05	0.855	5.90	2.24	1.53	0.25	15.67	11.30	60
WEGO	76.0	37.11	14.71	0.454	0.63	4.29	0.863	6.42	2.44	1.69	0.24	17.69	12.98	35

I’m a little surprised that TMR has him as a ‘Guy I Hate’. Seems like a perfect candidate for a sleeper pick. Deflated numbers from 2005-06 from coming off the bench for the first 21 games. His numbers as a starter (18.6 pts/6.6 reb/strong shooting percentages) would put him the top 30. I’m picking this guy up in the 5th round of every draft.

ANDREI KIRILENKO (2005: 15; TMR: 18; Wego: 11)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	69.0	37.75	10.59	0.461	0.52	7.17	0.699	8.00	4.33	1.48	3.19	15.30	15.70	15
TMR	65.0	33.00	9.70	0.466	0.53	6.19	0.733	6.82	3.49	1.44	2.87	14.11	14.84	18
WEGO	70.0	37.58	10.77	0.469	0.57	7.06	0.721	7.79	4.16	1.55	3.24	15.76	16.52	11

This one could go either way. Kirilenko is such an injury risk. But I believe his 2005-06 numbers are deflated because he came back slowly. He came off the bench in six games, had one start with 10 minutes, another with 8 minutes. The rest of the season – 39.2 minutes, 16.86 pts, 4.6 ast and 3.3 blocks. A TMR ‘Guy I Love’ despite the slightly lower projections.

ANDRES NOCIONI (2005: 92; TMR: 142; Wego: 90)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	82.0	27.23	10.13	0.461	1.15	2.94	0.842	6.10	1.43	0.49	0.63	12.96	9.69	92
TMR	82.0	26.60	9.58	0.440	0.83	3.05	0.811	5.90	1.56	0.51	0.58	11.74	8.35	142
WEGO	81.5	28.74	10.59	0.456	1.12	3.04	0.840	6.38	1.51	0.54	0.65	13.33	9.91	90

I’m not quite as high on Chapu as I was before the preseason…there’s some risk that he’ll be sitting behind Luol Deng. However, he did improve as the season progressed, and he was the Bulls best player in the playoffs last season. Even if he takes a dip, I don’t think it’s down to the #142 that TMR is projecting.

CARMELO ANTHONY (2005: 25; TMR: 36; Wego: 24)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	80.0	36.70	19.65	0.481	0.46	8.86	0.808	4.93	2.70	1.10	0.53	26.53	13.92	25
TMR	79.1	35.86	18.56	0.462	0.54	8.19	0.802	5.29	2.68	1.06	0.49	24.24	12.60	36
WEGO	80.0	36.92	20.34	0.479	0.48	9.05	0.810	4.79	2.72	1.06	0.53	27.29	13.95	24

Another TMR ‘Guy I Hate’. I just don’t get it. A lot of people don’t think much of Carmelo as a fantasy player, and certainly he’s not first round material. However, he had a great season in 2005-06 and it’s hard to see his numbers going anywhere but up. It’s hard to fathom his scoring average going from 26.5 to 24.2 like TMR is projecting. He’s much more likely to crack the 30-pt barrier this season, in my opinion. Be thrilled if you can land Melo in the third round.

ZAZA PACHULIA (2005: 103; TMR: 183; Wego: 138)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	78.0	31.33	8.73	0.451	0.00	5.18	0.735	7.86	1.65	1.14	0.50	11.68	8.97	103
TMR	74.2	25.12	6.80	0.442	0.00	3.85	0.725	6.48	1.14	0.87	0.46	8.80	6.86	183
WEGO	76.0	28.02	7.84	0.454	0.00	4.62	0.737	7.15	1.45	1.01	0.49	10.52	8.19	138

I’m not a big proponent of going out and drafting Zaza unless you are really desperate. The Atlanta frontcourt is a lot more crowded with Shelden Williams and Lorenzen Wright, so expect his numbers to go down. We’ll see if it’s closer to me or TMR.

SAM CASSELL (2005: 58; TMR: 97; Wego: 64)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	78.0	33.96	14.26	0.443	0.90	4.29	0.863	3.68	6.29	0.95	0.14	17.24	11.78	58
TMR	70.0	27.00	11.74	0.456	0.66	3.23	0.865	2.86	5.22	0.76	0.16	14.15	9.80	97
WEGO	77.0	32.09	13.58	0.445	0.79	3.96	0.867	3.38	5.93	0.87	0.15	16.31	11.03	64

A lot of people are predicting the demise of Sam I Am due to old age and Shaun Livingston. I expect his numbers to come down a little, but I doubt he drops to 27 minutes per game though.

PAU GASOL (2005: 27; TMR: 57; Wego: 37)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	80.0	39.15	14.93	0.503	0.04	7.71	0.689	8.91	4.64	0.58	1.91	20.35	13.62	27
TMR	60.0	32.00	12.56	0.502	0.03	6.46	0.713	7.43	3.29	0.54	1.62	17.25	11.68	57
WEGO	40.0	36.47	14.18	0.503	0.03	7.27	0.694	8.41	3.99	0.57	1.83	19.33	12.88	37

TMR is obviously expecting Gasol to come back slowly. I agree, but I don’t think it’ll dip his average to 32 minutes per. He should be productive for the second half of the season. I still rather avoid him altogether.

CHRIS WILCoX (2005: 159; TMR: 115; Wego: 82)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	77.0	19.78	5.84	0.571	0.00	1.99	0.732	5.32	0.68	0.43	0.44	8.13	6.83	159
TMR	69.5	31.10	10.30	0.511	0.00	3.52	0.692	7.88	1.11	0.71	0.67	12.96	9.21	115
WEGO	80.0	31.10	9.78	0.550	0.00	3.40	0.721	8.22	1.15	0.69	0.65	13.21	10.37	82

Finally somebody we agree on. Wilcox is a TMR ‘Guy I Love’ with good reason. He posted great numbers with Seattle last year. I guess it all depends on how close he can get to matching that ridiculous 57% FGP. A great late-round sleeper.

KOBE BRYANT (2005: 2; TMR: 4; Wego: 1)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	80.0	40.88	27.16	0.450	2.25	10.24	0.850	5.31	4.50	1.84	0.38	35.40	20.16	2
TMR	72.0	40.00	23.81	0.445	1.99	9.81	0.842	5.47	4.94	1.68	0.49	31.44	18.69	4
WEGO	77.0	40.83	25.85	0.447	2.26	9.88	0.847	5.33	4.68	1.87	0.41	33.76	19.83	1

I’m getting a little nervous that Kobe hasn’t played in the preseason yet. Could mean a slow start. Of course, he didn’t start off too hot last season either (30.8 ppg the first 20 games, 36.9 ppg after that), and ended up having the 2nd best season overall. TMR is predicting a big drop in points. Even if you take away his amazing 62-pt and 81-pt games, he still averaged 34.4 ppg last season.

GILBERT ARENAS (2005: 5; TMR: 7; Wego: 6)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	80.0	42.21	20.85	0.447	2.49	9.99	0.820	3.50	6.05	2.01	0.31	29.33	18.90	5
TMR	76.4	41.02	19.68	0.436	2.47	8.79	0.811	3.99	5.64	1.92	0.29	26.74	17.33	7
WEGO	80.0	41.82	20.47	0.445	2.51	9.62	0.818	3.84	5.86	1.94	0.31	28.57	18.45	6

Maybe TMR is betting the scoring drops because of the new ball or something. Could happen (when I get a chance to analyze the preseason data, I’ll post the findings here). If anything, the drop from the ball should be offset by what seems to be a growing number of teams attempting to adopt a more Suns-like offense. The Wizards are pretty much already there, and Arenas has the green light to jack up from anywhere. Seems like he’s the Rodney Dangerfield of the first round picks. Nobody believes that he is THAT good.

RAJA BELL (2005: 64; TMR: 116; Wego: 84)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	79.0	37.28	11.77	0.457	2.49	1.85	0.788	3.20	2.62	0.96	0.28	14.71	11.16	64
TMR	75.5	33.10	11.35	0.448	1.73	2.29	0.775	3.23	2.08	0.87	0.22	13.66	9.15	116
WEGO	77.5	35.04	11.13	0.453	2.18	1.91	0.787	3.12	2.44	0.92	0.24	13.77	10.24	84

TMR is projecting a big dip in production with Amare back. First of all, I don’t think Amare is going to be anywhere near 100%. He’ll probably be one of those aggravating looks absolutely amazing one game then astonishingly human the next. Raja’s production seemed to increase as the season progressed last year, and he’s their best perimeter defender (not saying much on the Suns), so I think he will still hold value.

MORRIS PETERSON (2005: 54; TMR: 92; Wego: 66)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	82.0	38.09	13.37	0.436	2.16	3.59	0.820	4.65	2.32	1.27	0.18	16.76	11.91	54
TMR	82.0	32.10	10.89	0.428	1.80	2.77	0.822	4.06	1.98	1.14	0.18	13.41	9.98	92
WEGO	82.0	35.31	12.31	0.433	1.96	3.30	0.815	4.36	2.18	1.21	0.18	15.31	10.97	66

Mo Pete would be No. 1 on my fantasy partner Marc Fredman’s Guys I Hate list if he had one. We slept on Peterson last year. The guy has played 82 games the last 4 seasons, and had his best year by far in 2005-06. The Raptors roster is chocked full of international players, so who knows what’s going to happen there, but I think he’s still a solid 7th round pick.

DERON WILLIAMS (2005: 137; TMR: 107; Wego: 81)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	80.0	28.80	10.06	0.421	1.14	1.69	0.704	2.43	4.49	0.75	0.21	10.80	7.53	137
TMR	80.0	33.00	12.24	0.417	1.40	2.00	0.700	3.00	6.00	1.00	0.20	13.00	9.43	107
WEGO	80.0	35.50	12.39	0.443	1.50	1.83	0.738	2.87	5.94	0.89	0.30	13.83	10.39	81

I keep having to bump up my projections for Deron, but I still haven’t been able to pick him up in any recent drafts. I got him with the last pick in a Yahoo public league early on. He could be the guy who takes the biggest fantasy leap this year. However, he might be a little overrated unless he improves his free throw shooting. Very likely could average 14-15 points per game or more this year.

TALENTED MR ROTO HIGHER

JACKIE BUTLER (2005: 250; TMR: 73; Wego: 177)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	55.0	13.40	3.91	0.544	0.00	1.40	0.753	3.33	0.45	0.31	0.56	5.31	4.73	250
TMR	67.0	25.00	7.92	0.602	0.00	2.98	0.795	5.89	0.80	0.80	1.00	11.90	10.86	73
WEGO	72.0	19.01	5.34	0.566	0.00	1.96	0.769	4.33	0.58	0.46	0.76	7.55	6.82	177

I honestly did not have Jackie Butler on my fantasy radar screen. I didn’t think anyone else did. TMR has him ranked 73rd with a 60% FGP.

RONNIE BREWER (TMR: 70; Wego: 136)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
TMR	75.0	32.00	7.67	0.470	1.07	2.40	0.770	3.00	2.40	2.00	0.40	10.12	11.00	70
WEGO	75.0	25.88	7.33	0.439	0.66	2.94	0.759	2.90	1.98	1.39	0.42	9.60	8.19	136

I’ll admit that Brewer is a guy to keep close tabs on. He’s the only true SG on the Jazz roster. Being a top 70 fantasy player would probably make him ROY. Seems like a stretch to me.

JUAN DIXON (2005: 161; TMR: 139; Wego: 210)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	76.0	25.14	10.80	0.435	0.86	2.54	0.803	2.33	1.96	0.76	0.08	12.29	6.79	161
TMR	72.0	29.00	12.40	0.423	1.09	2.84	0.825	2.86	2.52	1.06	0.09	13.93	8.39	139
WEGO	70.0	22.44	9.38	0.427	0.75	2.20	0.819	2.10	1.84	0.74	0.08	10.57	6.10	210

I always liked Dixon as a potential fantasy guy if he gets the minutes. TMR is projecting that he gets his chance. I’m predicting much lower minutes.

STROMILE SWIFT (2005: 214; TMR: 88; Wego: 139)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	66.0	20.26	6.94	0.491	0.00	3.17	0.651	4.41	0.38	0.58	0.76	8.88	5.59	214
TMR	75.0	32.50	11.62	0.476	0.00	5.28	0.691	7.19	0.76	0.99	1.69	14.72	10.17	88
WEGO	70.0	27.17	9.56	0.484	0.00	4.35	0.682	5.85	0.66	0.83	1.21	12.21	8.18	139

Stro gets his chance to shine again. Seems like a perfect sleeper pick. I also remember thinking the same thing last year, and we all know how that ended up (214th overall). I wouldn’t overpay. 88th seems like a major stretch.

ERICK DAMPIER (2005: 176; TMR: 135; Wego: 185)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	82.0	23.45	4.23	0.493	0.00	2.62	0.591	7.80	0.62	0.33	1.29	5.72	6.32	176
TMR	75.1	30.00	6.19	0.517	0.00	3.71	0.605	10.02	0.83	0.39	1.63	8.65	8.60	135
WEGO	75.0	24.04	4.50	0.508	0.00	2.85	0.600	7.97	0.64	0.32	1.32	6.29	6.67	185

Looks like Damp has earned the starter’s role and might get back to fantasy viability. He just hasn’t been that good since signing that fat contract with the Mavs.

TYRUS THOMAS (TMR: 100; Wego: 141)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
TMR	75.0	28.00	8.00	0.500	0.00	3.50	0.571	8.00	1.00	1.00	2.00	10.00	9.75	100
WEGO	75.0	23.25	7.01	0.473	0.03	2.88	0.644	5.67	0.89	0.82	1.68	8.53	7.98	141

Recently, TMR said that Tyrus could be this year’s Boris Diaw. Keep an eye on his minutes. Awfully crowded roster in Chicago though.

ANTONIO MCDYESS (2005: 182; TMR: 130; Wego: 166)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	82.0	20.99	6.83	0.509	0.00	1.49	0.557	5.32	1.10	0.56	0.59	7.78	6.18	182
TMR	74.8	27.80	9.85	0.505	0.00	2.46	0.589	7.27	1.31	0.79	1.00	11.40	8.79	130
WEGO	82.0	23.95	7.94	0.507	0.00	1.87	0.575	6.16	1.23	0.64	0.72	9.12	7.18	166

Should get a nice boost in minutes due to Big Ben’s departure, but Nazr seems to be playing very well in the preseason. I don’t think McDyess gets to the 27.8 minutes that TMR’s projecting.

MARVIN WILLIAMS (2005: 213; TMR: 117; Wego: 154)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	79.0	24.73	6.72	0.443	0.16	3.20	0.747	4.85	0.80	0.61	0.30	8.51	5.60	213
TMR	78.0	32.00	10.38	0.475	0.00	4.67	0.778	6.20	1.30	1.00	0.50	13.50	9.15	117
WEGO	79.0	31.25	8.93	0.458	0.15	4.60	0.755	6.11	1.02	0.77	0.40	11.80	7.57	154

Could battle Deron Williams for most likely to breakthrough in his second year. But beware. He seems to be going far too early in most drafts. TMR’s projections seem to be a best case scenario. If you take his best 15-game stretch over last season, TMR’s projection are 30% better than that. That’s a big jump. Could happen, but I’m being conservative. If anything, use Williams as trade bait (in one league I dealt Arenas/Marvin for Garnett).

RYAN GOMES (2005: 207; TMR: 95; Wego: 132)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	60.0	22.92	5.92	0.487	0.05	2.48	0.752	4.98	0.97	0.58	0.08	7.68	5.71	207
TMR	75.0	33.20	9.33	0.500	0.08	3.13	0.800	7.70	1.50	1.00	0.20	11.92	9.82	95
WEGO	79.0	29.98	8.22	0.502	0.07	3.36	0.767	6.86	1.36	0.78	0.13	10.91	8.31	132

I like Gomes a lot. But you need to be cautious as long as Al Jefferson is in the mix. TMR is projecting 33.2 minutes per game.

AMARE STOUDEMIRE (2005: 249; TMR: 16; Wego: 27)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	3.0	16.33	9.00	0.333	0.00	3.00	0.889	5.33	0.67	0.33	1.00	8.67	4.81	249
TMR	67.0	35.10	16.10	0.530	0.03	9.06	0.735	8.77	1.53	0.96	1.60	23.78	15.00	16
WEGO	66.0	33.87	14.66	0.521	0.03	8.17	0.733	8.31	1.40	0.90	1.58	21.28	13.64	27

See my comments for Raja Bell above. I just think he’s going to be rusty this year. Let someone else draft him.

PEJA STOJAKOVIC (2005: 52; TMR: 22; Wego: 38)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	71.0	36.62	14.34	0.437	2.28	3.66	0.915	5.85	1.92	0.63	0.14	18.17	11.98	52
TMR	71.3	37.55	14.41	0.464	2.47	4.01	0.919	5.54	1.99	0.87	0.16	19.52	13.94	22
WEGO	72.7	36.67	14.53	0.448	2.33	3.83	0.914	5.49	1.89	0.76	0.16	18.85	12.70	38

I agree with TMR that Peja should bounce back in New Orleans (I refuse to call them the New Orleans / Oklahoma City Hornets). But back up to #22 after 2 seasons of steady declines is a stretch in my opinion. Peja seems to be slipping into the early 6th round in a lot of my drafts…he’s a great pick there.

CUTTINO MOBLEY (2005: 78; TMR: 71; Wego: 97)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	79.0	37.51	12.75	0.426	1.05	3.46	0.839	4.32	3.01	1.18	0.46	14.81	10.38	78
TMR	75.9	37.61	13.23	0.429	1.51	3.26	0.831	4.13	3.00	1.19	0.45	15.57	11.00	71
WEGO	81.0	35.81	12.02	0.427	1.07	3.17	0.831	3.97	2.81	1.12	0.41	13.96	9.75	97

Hasn’t Mobley agreed to come off the bench? Nothing will kill your fantasy value more than that (see Corey Maggette last year). I don’t think you’ll see an improvement over last season.

SHAQUILLE O’NEAL (2005: 89; TMR: 65; Wego: 86)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	59.0	30.54	13.56	0.600	0.00	7.98	0.469	9.17	1.92	0.39	1.76	20.02	9.91	89
TMR	66.0	34.00	14.65	0.598	0.00	9.35	0.485	10.32	2.37	0.45	2.11	22.06	11.24	65
WEGO	67.8	31.53	14.25	0.593	0.00	8.35	0.467	9.68	1.95	0.44	1.73	20.80	10.01	86

Did you see Big Fella in the playoffs last year? Looked like a shell of his former self. I don’t think you’ll see him jump 24 slots in the fantasy rankings.

STEPHEN JACKSON (2005: 79; TMR: 74; Wego: 101)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	81.0	35.86	14.17	0.411	1.44	4.21	0.786	3.85	2.78	1.28	0.53	16.41	10.27	79
TMR	77.0	35.72	14.88	0.411	1.64	4.21	0.798	4.23	2.71	1.35	0.43	17.23	10.85	74
WEGO	81.0	33.40	13.61	0.405	1.41	3.99	0.793	3.70	2.64	1.23	0.46	15.58	9.64	101

Why was everyone so shocked and appalled after the recent nightclub incident? This just in: Stephen Jackson is crazy. If you had to pick the player most likely to get run over by a car at a strip club, it’s Jackson (unfortunately for me, if you had to pick the NBA player most likely to hunt down and kill a dude with a blog who said he was crazy, you get the same answer). In any case, Jackson’s numbers the past two seasons are a little inflated due to the decimated Pacers line-up. Plus fans are openly booing him during home games. That can’t be good for a guy’s stats. Avoid like the plague.

COREY MAGGETTE (2005: 88; TMR: 53; Wego: 70)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	32.0	29.38	11.72	0.445	0.75	8.00	0.828	5.28	2.06	0.59	0.13	17.81	9.91	88
TMR	65.0	34.50	13.71	0.442	0.86	9.16	0.838	5.95	2.68	0.79	0.15	20.65	11.89	53
WEGO	67.8	31.70	12.36	0.443	0.78	8.38	0.836	5.50	2.36	0.73	0.12	18.73	10.78	70

I’ve always been a big fantasy fan of Maggette but last season turned me against him. 34 agonizingly lackluster games sent him from top 35-40 material and a solid 4th round pick to ‘that guy just cost me any chance of winning this year’. Can he get back to his pre-2005 glory? We’ll see. I hear Dunleavy can’t stand him…never a good sign when your coach doesn’t like you. A TMR ‘Guy I Hate’ despite a projected increase in production.

DONYELL MARSHALL (2005: 128; TMR: 103; Wego: 127)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	81.0	25.58	8.28	0.395	1.58	1.52	0.748	6.07	0.74	0.73	0.51	9.26	7.80	128
TMR	77.2	27.54	9.10	0.418	1.81	1.59	0.756	6.73	0.97	0.83	0.68	10.62	9.57	103
WEGO	76.5	26.14	8.42	0.413	1.66	1.47	0.755	6.19	0.81	0.73	0.60	9.73	8.56	127

Wow, did Donyell have a horrible fantasy season last year or what? This guy used to be a fantasy beast (top 10 in 2003-04). He’s having a solid preseason, so maybe he turns the corner. Still has Gooden ahead of him on the depth chart, and it seems like Donyell is one of those guys who needs starter’s minutes to be productive.

AL JEFFERSON (2005: 202; TMR: 128; Wego: 145)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	59.0	18.00	6.42	0.499	0.00	2.27	0.642	5.07	0.51	0.51	0.78	7.86	5.88	202
TMR	75.0	25.00	9.38	0.510	0.00	3.36	0.637	7.60	0.69	0.67	1.24	11.70	8.83	128
WEGO	59.0	22.13	7.91	0.513	0.00	2.83	0.659	6.54	0.64	0.63	0.99	9.98	7.83	145

The difference is mostly in minutes. Jefferson reported to camp in great shape, but I read that he was awful during the summer leagues (after dominating the year before). I had him as a sleeper pick last year, and ended up losing out on Diaw because I didn’t cut bait quick enough.

SHAREEF ABDUR-RAHIM (2005: 101; TMR: 86; Wego: 109)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	72.0	27.28	8.78	0.525	0.07	3.86	0.784	4.96	2.07	0.67	0.58	12.32	9.16	101
TMR	69.5	30.00	10.16	0.511	0.12	4.25	0.818	5.87	2.08	0.74	0.55	13.98	10.29	86
WEGO	70.0	27.54	9.19	0.515	0.09	3.90	0.804	5.31	1.99	0.68	0.54	12.68	9.36	109

I haven’t seen or heard anything that has Shareef ahead of Kenny Thomas on the King’s depth chart. TMR has him at 30 minutes per game. I don’t see that happening, unless Shareef and Thomas get into another fight and Thomas ends up on the shelf.

SHELDEN WILLIAMS (TMR: 118; Wego: 135)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
TMR	78.0	25.40	8.37	0.490	0.00	2.79	0.617	7.31	0.65	1.02	1.49	9.93	9.11	118
WEGO	78.0	26.41	6.63	0.490	0.00	3.33	0.692	6.87	0.61	0.74	1.39	8.80	8.23	135

I just don’t think he’s going to be that good in the NBA. Maybe it’s my anti-Duke bias. Like just about everyone else, I don’t know why the Hawks picked him at #5. Ever hear of trading down?

DAVID WEST (2005: 51; TMR: 37; Wego: 57)

Season	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	74.0	34.08	13.96	0.511	0.04	3.19	0.843	7.39	1.24	0.80	0.86	17.00	11.99	51
TMR	77.0	35.00	14.26	0.504	0.05	3.42	0.817	8.45	1.46	0.90	0.97	17.20	12.59	37
WEGO	75.0	33.51	13.70	0.508	0.03	3.19	0.837	7.39	1.26	0.80	0.87	16.61	11.75	57

I really like West. I’m picking him up in the 6th round on a bunch of teams. Jumping up 14 slots when you have Peja and even Tyson Chandler on board might be a bit of a stretch, but this is at least one case in which I hope TMR is right.

So that’s it. We’ll look at the results at the end of the season and see who won. Good luck, TMR. Like you said, you’re only as good as your prognostications.

UPDATE: OCTOBER 26, 2006 -- I've added 10 more players to the mix. These are guys were are rankings don't differ that much, but they have the greatest divergence when you look at them category by category. A lot of them make sense because they're either rookies or their role for the upcoming season is of much debate, hence the varying viewpoint. Add these to the list and consider the challenge and even 50 players.

Morrison,Adam	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
TMR	75.0	33.00	12.46	0.462	1.50	5.50	0.727	3.00	2.00	0.20	0.20	17.00	7.56	160
WEGOBLOGGER	78.0	31.14	12.61	0.435	1.29	4.80	0.800	3.84	1.28	0.59	0.28	16.37	8.41	130
Bogut,Andrew	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	82.0	28.49	7.39	0.533	0.00	2.37	0.629	6.99	2.34	0.60	0.83	9.37	8.60	105
TMR	68.0	23.50	10.53	0.485	0.00	4.50	0.618	9.00	3.30	0.70	1.30	13.00	10.03	91
WEGOBLOGGER	69.0	31.81	8.25	0.528	0.00	3.05	0.641	7.94	2.66	0.63	1.12	10.67	9.79	94
Roy,Brandon	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
TMR	75.0	33.00	13.00	0.423	1.00	5.00	0.800	4.00	4.00	0.80	0.00	16.00	9.07	121
WEGOBLOGGER	78.0	31.64	12.40	0.455	0.73	4.73	0.783	3.88	3.99	0.87	0.26	15.92	9.83	92
Gay,Rudy	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
TMR	82.0	22.39	9.29	0.448	0.60	2.43	0.739	3.79	1.20	0.79	1.29	10.71	8.13	145
WEGOBLOGGER	78.0	28.00	10.15	0.444	0.53	3.13	0.734	4.71	1.54	1.07	1.02	11.85	8.87	123
Diogu,Ike	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	68.0	15.04	4.82	0.527	0.00	2.47	0.810	3.35	0.43	0.22	0.44	7.09	5.00	239
TMR	73.0	25.00	6.91	0.500	0.00	3.02	0.857	6.50	0.60	0.40	0.40	9.50	7.49	162
WEGOBLOGGER	76.0	23.78	7.25	0.532	0.00	3.83	0.819	5.57	0.61	0.38	0.66	10.85	8.02	140
James,Mike	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	79.0	36.84	15.54	0.469	2.14	4.28	0.837	3.32	5.82	0.91	0.04	20.30	13.89	26
TMR	75.0	36.50	13.12	0.459	1.93	4.27	0.772	3.08	6.64	0.91	0.03	17.27	12.31	45
WEGOBLOGGER	78.0	34.73	13.66	0.450	1.86	3.52	0.810	3.23	5.39	0.95	0.05	17.00	11.80	56
Walker,Antoine	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	82.0	26.66	10.95	0.435	1.67	1.57	0.628	5.13	2.02	0.57	0.37	12.20	8.21	118
TMR	80.8	30.84	13.01	0.431	1.58	2.36	0.582	6.48	2.69	0.73	0.51	14.15	9.11	119
WEGOBLOGGER	67.0	27.88	11.60	0.438	1.55	1.83	0.610	5.58	2.18	0.65	0.43	12.81	8.54	128
Wells,Bonzi	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	52.0	32.40	11.79	0.463	0.19	3.65	0.679	7.71	2.77	1.81	0.48	13.60	11.37	60
TMR	70.0	28.76	11.21	0.451	0.33	3.27	0.708	5.81	2.18	1.58	0.43	12.76	9.76	99
WEGOBLOGGER	52.0	29.13	11.17	0.433	0.25	3.15	0.676	6.72	2.31	1.69	0.43	12.05	9.54	103
Davis,Baron	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	53.0	36.74	16.02	0.390	1.89	5.45	0.675	4.36	9.00	1.68	0.26	18.06	12.49	41
TMR	54.0	36.47	16.77	0.390	2.20	5.33	0.697	4.22	8.45	1.78	0.29	18.98	13.22	30
WEGOBLOGGER	63.3	36.96	16.27	0.402	1.97	5.57	0.694	4.37	8.64	1.75	0.26	18.92	13.39	32
Wallace,Rasheed	GP	Min	FGA	FG%	3M	FTA	FT%	REB	AS	ST	BK	PTS	TOT	Rk
2005-06	80.0	34.63	13.34	0.430	1.94	2.29	0.743	6.84	2.28	1.03	1.63	15.11	12.90	35
TMR	78.0	34.56	13.51	0.434	1.58	2.46	0.730	7.16	2.16	0.95	1.61	15.09	12.31	44
WEGOBLOGGER	77.2	34.64	13.77	0.450	1.37	2.90	0.739	7.37	2.12	0.98	1.50	15.90	12.65	40