1. Body or work (Colton Index) - resume of wins and losses for the entire season
2. Quality Wins - summing up all of a teams wins based on degree of difficulty
3. Performance over last 10 - did team play above or below their body of work rating over the last 10
That gives you the following seed lines:
1: Ohio State, Wisconsin, North Carolina, UCLA
2: Kansas, Florida, Georgetown, Southern Illinois
3: Memphis, Oregon, Maryland, Pittsburgh
4: Washington St, Texas A&M, Arizona, Winthrop
5: UNLV, Texas, Tennessee, Nevada
6: Duke, Kentucky, Southern California, Georgia Tech
7: Creighton, Notre Dame, Michigan St, Missouri St
8: Villanova, Marquette, Boston College, Louisville
9: BYU, Virginia Tech, Arkansas, Virginia
10: Vanderbilt, Indiana, Florida St, Stanford
11: Illinois, Purdue, Clemson, Davidson
12: Butler, Gonzaga, VCU, New Mexico St
13: George Washington, Wright St, Long Beach, TAMU-CC
14: Holy Cross, Miami-Ohio, Albany, Oral Roberts
15: Pennsylvania, Belmont, Niagara, North Texas
16: Weber St, Eastern Kentucky, Central Connecticut, Florida A&M, Jackson St
Last 4 In: Illinois, Purdue, Clemson, Butler
First 4 Out: Georgia, Mississippi St, Texas Tech, Bradley
Next 4 Out: Xavier, Old Dominion, Air Force, Syracuse
Here's my S-Curve starting with the 9 seeds and below:
_S-Curve_ | _Proj Seed_ | _Team_ |
33 | 9 | BYU |
34 | 9 | Virginia Tech |
35 | 9 | Arkansas |
36 | 9 | Virginia |
37 | 10 | Vanderbilt |
38 | 10 | Indiana |
39 | 10 | Florida St |
40 | 10 | Stanford |
41 | 11 | Illinois |
42 | 11 | Purdue |
43 | 11 | Clemson |
44 | 11 | Davidson |
45 | 12 | Butler |
46 | Georgia | |
47 | Mississippi St | |
48 | Texas Tech | |
49 | Bradley | |
50 | Xavier | |
51 | Old Dominion | |
52 | Air Force | |
53 | Syracuse | |
54 | Mississippi | |
55 | Alabama | |
56 | Kansas St | |
57 | Michigan | |
58 | Appalachian St | |
59 | North Carolina St | |
60 | 12 | Gonzaga |
61 | West Virginia | |
62 | Drexel | |
63 | Oklahoma St | |
64 | 12 | VCU |
65 | Washington | |
66 | San Diego St | |
67 | Massachusetts | |
68 | DePaul | |
69 | LSU | |
70 | California | |
71 | Utah St |
And one other important thing to note is the teams with inflated or deflated RPI's, which can have a dramatic impact since these are the numbers that the Committee is actually looking at.
Inflated RPI's
1: Holy Cross (RPI:61,Colton:93)
2: Utah St (43,74)
3: BYU (18,32)
4: Dayton (75,96)
5: Villanova (19,31)
6: Xavier (34,60)
7: Creighton (20,33)
8: UNLV (10,17)
9: Pittsburgh (5,12)
10: Kentucky (13,21)
11: Tennessee (12,20)
12: Wright St (72,91)
13: Old Dominion (40,63)
14: Drexel (39,62)
15: Hofstra (73,90)
Deflated RPI's
1: Winthrop (RPI:70,Colton:10)
2: Washington St (26,13)
3: Oregon (21,9)
4: Washington (81,61)
5: North Carolina St (92,66)
6: Southern California (48,25)
7: Ohio State (1,1)
8: Wisconsin (4,2)
9: Stanford (65,44)
10: Clemson (51,27)
11: Georgia Tech (52,29)
12: Georgia (60,46)
13: Virginia (55,36)
14: Kansas (11,6)
15: Northern Iowa (83,69)
Just eyeballing the list, the teams that will probably benefit most are Xavier, Old Dominion and Hofstra, and the teams at-risk are USC, Stanford, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Georgia and Virginia. You really, really don't want the bubble team whose RPI is 20+ slots lower than it should be.
I will update the brackets once more before Selection Sunday.
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