1. Body or work (Colton Index) - resume of wins and losses for the entire season
2. Quality Wins - summing up all of a teams wins based on degree of difficulty
3. Performance over last 10 - did team play above or below their body of work rating over the last 10
That gives you the following seed lines:
1: Ohio State, Wisconsin, North Carolina, UCLA
2: Kansas, Florida, Georgetown, Southern Illinois
3: Memphis, Oregon, Maryland, Pittsburgh
4: Washington St, Texas A&M, Arizona, Winthrop
5: UNLV, Texas, Tennessee, Nevada
6: Duke, Kentucky, Southern California, Georgia Tech
7: Creighton, Notre Dame, Michigan St, Missouri St
8: Villanova, Marquette, Boston College, Louisville
9: BYU, Virginia Tech, Arkansas, Virginia
10: Vanderbilt, Indiana, Florida St, Stanford
11: Illinois, Purdue, Clemson, Davidson
12: Butler, Gonzaga, VCU, New Mexico St
13: George Washington, Wright St, Long Beach, TAMU-CC
14: Holy Cross, Miami-Ohio, Albany, Oral Roberts
15: Pennsylvania, Belmont, Niagara, North Texas
16: Weber St, Eastern Kentucky, Central Connecticut, Florida A&M, Jackson St
Last 4 In: Illinois, Purdue, Clemson, Butler
First 4 Out: Georgia, Mississippi St, Texas Tech, Bradley
Next 4 Out: Xavier, Old Dominion, Air Force, Syracuse
Here's my S-Curve starting with the 9 seeds and below:
| _S-Curve_ | _Proj Seed_ | _Team_ |
| 33 | 9 | BYU |
| 34 | 9 | Virginia Tech |
| 35 | 9 | Arkansas |
| 36 | 9 | Virginia |
| 37 | 10 | Vanderbilt |
| 38 | 10 | Indiana |
| 39 | 10 | Florida St |
| 40 | 10 | Stanford |
| 41 | 11 | Illinois |
| 42 | 11 | Purdue |
| 43 | 11 | Clemson |
| 44 | 11 | Davidson |
| 45 | 12 | Butler |
| 46 | Georgia | |
| 47 | Mississippi St | |
| 48 | Texas Tech | |
| 49 | Bradley | |
| 50 | Xavier | |
| 51 | Old Dominion | |
| 52 | Air Force | |
| 53 | Syracuse | |
| 54 | Mississippi | |
| 55 | Alabama | |
| 56 | Kansas St | |
| 57 | Michigan | |
| 58 | Appalachian St | |
| 59 | North Carolina St | |
| 60 | 12 | Gonzaga |
| 61 | West Virginia | |
| 62 | Drexel | |
| 63 | Oklahoma St | |
| 64 | 12 | VCU |
| 65 | Washington | |
| 66 | San Diego St | |
| 67 | Massachusetts | |
| 68 | DePaul | |
| 69 | LSU | |
| 70 | California | |
| 71 | Utah St |
And one other important thing to note is the teams with inflated or deflated RPI's, which can have a dramatic impact since these are the numbers that the Committee is actually looking at.
Inflated RPI's
1: Holy Cross (RPI:61,Colton:93)
2: Utah St (43,74)
3: BYU (18,32)
4: Dayton (75,96)
5: Villanova (19,31)
6: Xavier (34,60)
7: Creighton (20,33)
8: UNLV (10,17)
9: Pittsburgh (5,12)
10: Kentucky (13,21)
11: Tennessee (12,20)
12: Wright St (72,91)
13: Old Dominion (40,63)
14: Drexel (39,62)
15: Hofstra (73,90)
Deflated RPI's
1: Winthrop (RPI:70,Colton:10)
2: Washington St (26,13)
3: Oregon (21,9)
4: Washington (81,61)
5: North Carolina St (92,66)
6: Southern California (48,25)
7: Ohio State (1,1)
8: Wisconsin (4,2)
9: Stanford (65,44)
10: Clemson (51,27)
11: Georgia Tech (52,29)
12: Georgia (60,46)
13: Virginia (55,36)
14: Kansas (11,6)
15: Northern Iowa (83,69)
Just eyeballing the list, the teams that will probably benefit most are Xavier, Old Dominion and Hofstra, and the teams at-risk are USC, Stanford, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Georgia and Virginia. You really, really don't want the bubble team whose RPI is 20+ slots lower than it should be.
I will update the brackets once more before Selection Sunday.
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