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Sunday Morning Bracketology

3/11/2007
Here's my Sunday morning bracketology. Again, this isn't what I think the Selection Committee WILL do, it's simply what I think the Selection Committee SHOULD do, based on three criteria applied consistently across the board:

1. Body or work (Colton Index) - resume of wins and losses for the entire season
2. Quality Wins - summing up all of a teams wins based on degree of difficulty
3. Performance over last 10 - did team play above or below their body of work rating over the last 10

That gives you the following seed lines:

1: Ohio State, Wisconsin, North Carolina, UCLA
2: Kansas, Florida, Georgetown, Southern Illinois
3: Memphis, Oregon, Maryland, Pittsburgh
4: Washington St, Texas A&M, Arizona, Winthrop
5: UNLV, Texas, Tennessee, Nevada
6: Duke, Kentucky, Southern California, Georgia Tech
7: Creighton, Notre Dame, Michigan St, Missouri St
8: Villanova, Marquette, Boston College, Louisville
9: BYU, Virginia Tech, Arkansas, Virginia
10: Vanderbilt, Indiana, Florida St, Stanford
11: Illinois, Purdue, Clemson, Davidson
12: Butler, Gonzaga, VCU, New Mexico St
13: George Washington, Wright St, Long Beach, TAMU-CC
14: Holy Cross, Miami-Ohio, Albany, Oral Roberts
15: Pennsylvania, Belmont, Niagara, North Texas
16: Weber St, Eastern Kentucky, Central Connecticut, Florida A&M, Jackson St

Last 4 In: Illinois, Purdue, Clemson, Butler
First 4 Out: Georgia, Mississippi St, Texas Tech, Bradley
Next 4 Out: Xavier, Old Dominion, Air Force, Syracuse

Here's my S-Curve starting with the 9 seeds and below:

_S-Curve_ _Proj Seed_ _Team_
339 BYU
349 Virginia Tech
359 Arkansas
369 Virginia
3710 Vanderbilt
3810 Indiana
3910 Florida St
4010 Stanford
4111 Illinois
4211 Purdue
4311 Clemson
4411 Davidson
4512 Butler
46 Georgia
47 Mississippi St
48 Texas Tech
49 Bradley
50 Xavier
51 Old Dominion
52 Air Force
53 Syracuse
54 Mississippi
55 Alabama
56 Kansas St
57 Michigan
58 Appalachian St
59 North Carolina St
6012 Gonzaga
61 West Virginia
62 Drexel
63 Oklahoma St
6412 VCU
65 Washington
66 San Diego St
67 Massachusetts
68 DePaul
69 LSU
70 California
71 Utah St


And one other important thing to note is the teams with inflated or deflated RPI's, which can have a dramatic impact since these are the numbers that the Committee is actually looking at.

Inflated RPI's
1: Holy Cross (RPI:61,Colton:93)
2: Utah St (43,74)
3: BYU (18,32)
4: Dayton (75,96)
5: Villanova (19,31)
6: Xavier (34,60)
7: Creighton (20,33)
8: UNLV (10,17)
9: Pittsburgh (5,12)
10: Kentucky (13,21)
11: Tennessee (12,20)
12: Wright St (72,91)
13: Old Dominion (40,63)
14: Drexel (39,62)
15: Hofstra (73,90)

Deflated RPI's
1: Winthrop (RPI:70,Colton:10)
2: Washington St (26,13)
3: Oregon (21,9)
4: Washington (81,61)
5: North Carolina St (92,66)
6: Southern California (48,25)
7: Ohio State (1,1)
8: Wisconsin (4,2)
9: Stanford (65,44)
10: Clemson (51,27)
11: Georgia Tech (52,29)
12: Georgia (60,46)
13: Virginia (55,36)
14: Kansas (11,6)
15: Northern Iowa (83,69)
Just eyeballing the list, the teams that will probably benefit most are Xavier, Old Dominion and Hofstra, and the teams at-risk are USC, Stanford, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Georgia and Virginia. You really, really don't want the bubble team whose RPI is 20+ slots lower than it should be.

I will update the brackets once more before Selection Sunday.

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