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Bracket Projections - Jan 31

1/31/2008
Here's my latest bracket projections, based on the up-to-date Colton Index with extra weight for quality wins and performance over the last 10 games.

1: Memphis, North Carolina, Kansas, Washington St
2: Duke, UCLA, Tennessee, Georgetown
3: Drake, Michigan St, Butler, Xavier
4: Connecticut, Indiana, Wisconsin, Pittsburgh
5: Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma, Arizona
6: Marquette, Mississippi, Southern California, Stanford
7: Gonzaga, Notre Dame, St. Mary's, Ohio State
8: Kansas St, Vanderbilt, Dayton, Florida
9: Texas A&M, Rhode Island, Kent St, Clemson
10: Massachusetts, South Alabama, Purdue, Miami (FL)
11: North Carolina St, Louisville, Saint Joseph's, BYU
12: Arkansas, West Virginia, Oregon, UNLV
13: Davidson, CS Northridge, VCU, Oral Roberts
14: UNC Asheville, Siena, Utah St, Wagner
15: Northern Arizona, UMBC, Hampton, Lafayette
16: Cornell, Austin Peay, Lamar, Jacksonville, Alabama St

Last 4 In: BYU, Arkansas, West Virginia, Oregon
First 4 Out: Seton Hall, Arizona St, Creighton, Stephen F. Austin
Next 4 Out: Villanova, Illinois St, Syracuse, Providence
If you look at the top 5 most inflated RPI's, you'll see some familiar faces on the list. Syracuse, Arizona and Tennessee have it figured out. Remember Bruce Pearl's shock at getting a 2 seed two years ago? The inflated RPI numbers helped his case tremendously. Bracketologists are considering Tennessee for a one seed this year, certainly the RPI of 1 and SOS of 2 has to play some role. I'm not bashing Arizona, Syracuse or Tennessee...I just wonder why more programs haven't figured this out. Better seeds = better draws = better chance of making the Final Four. A better RPI can only help you get a better seed.

Inflated RPI's
1: Tennessee (RPI:1,Colton:9)
2: Arizona (8,25)
3: George Mason (49,78)
4: Massachusetts (21,38)
5: Syracuse (39,56)

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