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Fuzzy Math

1/02/2008
Happy New Year! Not much activity on the trading front over the holidays, but I did land a handful of deals in between the presents, egg nog and games of Guitar Hero III on the new Colton-family Wii. Guitar Hero has the potential to derail my fantasy basketball success more than any competitor or CBS commissioner combined.

Effective Week 8
SP01: Gasol,Pau for Pierce,Paul
SP01: Artest,Ron and Jackson,Stephen for Butler,Caron and Ellis,Monta
SP03: Granger,Danny for Brewer,Ronnie (finally passed after multiple attempts)
SP10: Smith,Josh for Kidd,Jason
SP15: Lewis,Rashard, Stoudemire,Amare and Wallace,Gerald for Allen,Ray, Kirilenko,Andrei and Nowitzki,Dirk
SP17: Ming,Yao for Garnett,Kevin
SP24: Kirilenko,Andrei for Billups,Chauncey
SP24: Smith,Josh for Nowitzki,Dirk
SP26: Davis,Ricky and Dalembert,Samuel for Ginobili,Manu
SP38: Dalembert,Samuel for Ford,T.J.
SP44: Bosh,Chris and Roy,Brandon for Wade,Dwyane and Thomas,Tim
SP47: Allen,Ray for Lewis,Rashard
SP49: Dalembert,Samuel for Turkoglu,Hedo
SP49: Smith,Josh for Kidd,Jason

Comment: Some nice deals here...got rid of Gasol right before he went down, and Pierce has been playing very well since. Plus Boston has more games left than any other team so this deal should continue to reap the rewards (no, it's never to early to think about this). On the flip side, I'd gladly take back the Ricky/Dalembert for Ginobili deal and the one time I make a deal for TJ Ford, he goes off on a stretcher the very night the deal goes through. Ford's return is uncertain...ultimately I had to drop him. Essentially I gave away Samuel Dalembert for free.

Effective Week 9
SP02: Nelson,Jameer for Gordon,Ben
SP02: Ellis,Monta for Granger,Danny
SP17: Durant,Kevin and Mohammed,Nazr for Miller,Mike and Wallace,Ben
SP30: Gay,Rudy and Dalembert,Samuel for Billups,Chauncey and Crawford,Jamal
SP47: Gay,Rudy and Mohammed,Nazr for Williams,Deron
SP51: Odom,Lamar and Williams,Maurice for Camby,Marcus and Wallace,Rasheed
SP51: Wade,Dwyane, Kirilenko,Andrei and Gordon,Ben for Boozer,Carlos, Nash,Steve and Stevenson,Deshawn
SP52: Arenas,Gilbert and Lewis,Rashard for Butler,Caron and Brewer,Ronnie

Effective Week 10
SP22: Carter,Vince and Gordon,Ben for Wade,Dwyane and McDyess,Antonio
SP23: Chandler,Tyson and Mohammed,Nazr for Kaman,Chris
SP41: Allen,Ray and Lewis,Rashard for Iverson,Allen and Kirilenko,Andrei
SP42: Artest,Ron, Aldridge,Lamarcus and Ellis,Monta for Anthony,Carmelo, Lewis,Rashard, Calderon,Jose and Hinrich,Kirk
SP07: Dalembert,Samuel and Barbosa,Leandro for Camby,Marcus

Comment: I was quick to pick up Nazr Mohammed after he got traded to the Bobcats whether I really needed him or not, and was even quicker to deal him when he came out of the gates blazing in his first few games as a starter. Basically I used him to upgrade at a few positions - Gay for Deron, Chandler for Kaman, Durant for Mike Miller. The Week 10 deal for SP42 was very good even before Artest went down for elbow surgery...it's looking like a huge steal now.

Vetoes
SP03: Moon,Jamario for Bargnani,Andrea
SP03: Granger,Danny for Brewer,Ronnie
SP22: Carter,Vince and Gay,Rudy for Bryant,Kobe
SP29: Iguodala,Andre, Ellis,Monta and Gibson,Daniel for Wade,Dwyane, Odom,Lamar and Francis,Steve
SP31: Wade,Dwyane and Battier,Shane for Garnett,Kevin and Ellis,Monta
SP22: Jamison,Antawn and Gay,Rudy for Bryant,Kobe and Jaric,Marko
SP22: Jamison,Antawn and Gay,Rudy for Bryant,Kobe and Butler,Rasual
SP29: Iguodala,Andre, Ellis,Monta, Gibson,Daniel and Mohammed,Nazr for Wade,Dwyane, Haslem,Udonis, Murphy,Troy and Smith,J.R.
SP31: Granger,Danny and Gay,Rudy for Garnett,Kevin
SP31: Lewis,Rashard and Gay,Rudy for Garnett,Kevin and Moon,Jamario
SP33: Gay,Rudy and Horford,Al for Iverson,Allen
SP08: Jefferson,Richard and Ellis,Monta for Bryant,Kobe
SP21: Iguodala,Andre and Rondo,Rajon for Garnett,Kevin and Moon,Jamario

No real surprises here. When it comes to CBS, I'd feel more comfortable if they tossed a coin to decide on deals. One particular deal stands out...Lewis/Gay for KG/Moon in S31. I wasn't really surprised that I got vetoed, but it sticks out because literally minutes after the veto notification the following deal was approved in a different league: Lamarcus Aldridge and Stephen Jackson for Carlos Boozer and Raymond Felton. Huh? If that deal is deemed fair than there's no way my KG deal is unfair. Essentially it breaks down to this:

1. If given a choice, most fantasy owners would choose A: Boozer (ranked 9th at the time of the decision) and Felton (72nd) over B: Garnett (5th) and Moon (118). I hate Felton and I would do that deal in a heartbeat.

2. Unless you were brain dead, all fantasy owners would choose C: Lewis (38th) and Gay (33rd) over D: Aldridge (79th) and Jackson (45th). That's a no brainer.

So if A>B and C>D then a deal between B & C has to be closer to fair than a deal between A & D, right? I'm getting the lesser pair on one end and giving up the greater pair on the other end, right?

In the vortex otherwise known as CBS Fantasy Sports, the basic rules of algebra no longer apply.

When pressed for some rationale behind the decisions, my ol' buddy CBS Ron said that when you're trading for a top 5 player such as Kobe or KG, you need to include a top 5 player in the deal, essentially eliminating any chance to deal for one of these guys. This stance may be a sound strategy for running your fantasy basketball team, but it's absolutely absurd to assess the fairness of potential deals by using this criteria. Garnett is a top 5 player (although hardly top 5 recently), he's only slightly better than Boozer. If Boozer can be had for a song and KG is, say, 10% better than Boozer, than KG should be able to be had for Song + 10%. There's no way one deal is fair and not the other.

Excuse me while I vent my frustration with a little Guitar Hero III...

PROJECTION UPDATE

More of the same after looking at the projections through Week 9 (plus one day in Week 10). The Colton Index numbers are beating the consensus picks and blowing away the competition. And anybody who shelled out $8 for the Fantasy Lounge projections should demand their money back. Recall that the first ranking measures the improvement in accuracy over simply using the 2006 numbers as a baseline. The second ranking looks at each player and gives 14 points for the closest projection down to 1 point for the worst.

IMPROVEMENT VERSUS BASELINE
1 COLTON INDEX 23.81%
2 CONSENSUS PROJECTIONS 21.22%
3 ROTOFREAK 17.46%
4 ESPN/TMR 14.69%
5 NBA.COM 13.69%
6 FANTASY SPORTS CENTRAL 13.02%
7 FANTASY HOOPS REALM 11.71%
8 HOOPSKLYCE 11.48%
9 BASKETBALL MONSTER 10.13%
10 ROTOWORLD 9.09%
11 ROTOWIRE/YAHOO 7.10%
12 CBS SPORTS 3.99%
13 2006 BASELINE 0.00%
14 FANTASY LOUNGE -30.21%

POINTS-BASED
1 COLTON INDEX 2071
2 CONSENSUS PROJECTIONS 2053
3 ESPN/TMR 1848
4 ROTOFREAK 1822
5 BASKETBALL MONSTER 1678
6 FANTASY SPORTS CENTRAL 1657
7 HOOPSKLYCE 1646
8 NBA.COM 1643
9 ROTOWORLD 1570
10 FANTASY HOOPS REALM 1565
11 CBS SPORTS 1540
12 2006 BASELINE 1513
12 ROTOWIRE 1465
14 FANTASY LOUNGE 1313

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