Bracket Projections - Mar 16 (PM Update - FINAL)

Here is my final bracket projection. Below, I ran the Colton Index-based seedings on all of the remaining 8 scenarios, but I doubt the Committee has built that much flexibility into the brackets. So I'm putting my stake in the ground with a bracket projecting that Wisconsin and Arkansas win (then averaging the rank between the outcome of Texas vs Kansas). If Georgia and/or Illinois win (go Illini!), they will simply replace the last two teams in.

Just like every other year, I fully expect that I will finish the worst amongst all of the bracketologists. However, I'd caution against thinking this is a black mark against my rating system or something. I'm simply churning out a data-driven brackets that is based on the things the Committee says to value, mostly body-of-work. And more importantly, I don't rely on the RPI at all. Where the actual seedings differ from mine will highlight exactly where the Committee veered from this consistent, objective approach and/or relied on misleading information from the RPI or any of its subcomponents.

Final Bracket Projections
1: North Carolina, UCLA, Memphis, Tennessee
2: Kansas, Texas, Duke, Wisconsin
3: Georgetown, Stanford, Drake, Washington St
4: Butler, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Xavier
5: Southern California, Michigan St, Clemson, Marquette
6: Connecticut, Notre Dame, Indiana, Vanderbilt
7: Kent St, Purdue, Oklahoma, West Virginia
8: Texas A&M, Gonzaga, Arizona, Miami (FL)
9: Arkansas, Baylor, BYU, Davidson
10: Arizona St, Oregon, Illinois St, St. Mary's
11: Villanova, Kansas St, Mississippi St, Florida St
12: UNLV, Ohio State, Temple, Western Kentucky
13: Oral Roberts, Cornell, George Mason, Siena
14: CS Fullerton, Boise St, San Diego, Belmont
15: UMBC, Winthrop, Portland St, American
16: Austin Peay, UT Arlington, Mt St. Mary's, Coppin St, Miss Valley St

Last 4 In: Kansas St, Mississippi St, Florida St*, Ohio State*
First 4 Out: Syracuse, Saint Joseph's, Massachusetts, Dayton
Next 4 Out: Creighton, Mississippi, Virginia Tech, Kentucky
* Potentially replaced by Illinois (go Illini!) and/or Georgia

I think it's safe to say the teams most as risk are Florida St, Arizona St, Ohio St, Oregon and Villanova probably are at the most risk (from highest risk to lowest risk), likely to be replaced by Saint Joseph's, Virginia Tech, South Alabama, Kentucky and (grasping for a fifth team) Syracuse or Mississippi. I fully expect Florida St and Arizona St to be out of the field, despite the fact they deserve to be in.

If you were able to factor in the results of the remaining three games completely, my approach would come up with the following seeds based on the 8 potential scenarios below.

Scenario A: Georgia, Kansas, Illinois win
Scenario B: Georgia, Kansas, Wisconsin win
Scenario C: Arkansas, Kansas, Illinois win
Scenario D: Arkansas, Kansas, Wisconsin win
Scenario E: Georgia, Texas, Illinois win
Scenario F: Georgia, Texas, Wisconsin win
Scenario G: Arkansas, Texas, Illinois win
Scenario H: Arkansas, Texas, Wisconsin win

Team	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H
North Carolina	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
UCLA	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Memphis	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Tennessee	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2
Kansas	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Texas	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1
Duke	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Wisconsin	3	2	3	2	3	2	3	2
Georgetown	2	3	2	3	2	3	2	3
Stanford	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Drake	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Washington St	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Butler	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Pittsburgh	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Louisville	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Xavier	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Southern California	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Clemson	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Michigan St	6	6	6	6	6	5	6	5
Marquette	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Connecticut	5	5	5	5	5	6	5	6
Notre Dame	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Indiana	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Vanderbilt	7	7	6	6	7	7	6	6
Kent St	6	6	7	7	6	6	7	7
Purdue	7	7	7	7	8	7	8	7
Oklahoma	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
West Virginia	7	7	7	7	7	8	7	8
Texas A&M	8	8	8	8	7	7	7	7
Gonzaga	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Arizona	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Miami (FL)	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Arkansas	11	11	9	9	11	11	9	9
BYU	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Baylor	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Davidson	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	9
Arizona St	9	9	10	10	9	9	9	10
Oregon	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Illinois St	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
St. Mary's	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Villanova	10	10	11	11	10	10	11	11
Kansas St	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Mississippi St			11	11			11	11
Florida St	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
UNLV	11	11	12	12	11	11	12	12
Ohio State		12		12		12		12
Temple	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Western Kentucky	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Oral Roberts	12	12	12	13	12	12	12	13
Illinois	12		13		12		13
Cornell	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
George Mason	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Siena	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Georgia	13	13			13	13
CS Fullerton	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Boise St	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
San Diego	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Belmont	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
UMBC	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Winthrop	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Portland St	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
American	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Austin Peay	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
UT Arlington	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Mt St. Mary's	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Coppin St	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Miss Valley St	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16

You'll notice some flip-flopping of seeds based on the last three games, but I think these are most likely already set in stone. Texas would be worthy as a 1 seed if they beat Kansas, but Kansas wouldn't have enough to overcome Tennessee if they beat Texas. It's doubtful that the Committee has this type of contingency in place. They either the winner of the Texas/Kansas game as a 1 seed, the loser as a 2 seed. Or they have both as a 2 seed and Tennessee locked in as a 1 seed. The same goes for Wisconsin, who could move ahead of Georgetown as a 2 seed with a win over Illinois. I'm guessing they already have Wisconsin as a 2 or a 3 (probably a 3) and the outcome of today's game won't change it.

Once the brackets come out, I'll do some additional analysis on teams that were overseeded and underseeded relative to my projections.