Bracket Update - March 11th

Here is my latest bracket projections with games as of Monday March 10th. Again, this is not what I think the brackets will look like (trying to guess what the Selection Committee WILL do), it's simply what I think they SHOULD do if they practice what they preach: value body-of-work with slight extra weight for recent performance and quality wins.

1: North Carolina, Memphis, UCLA, Tennessee
2: Duke, Texas, Kansas, Georgetown
3: Wisconsin, Stanford, Drake, Washington St
4: Louisville, Xavier, Butler, Connecticut
5: Notre Dame, Indiana, Michigan St, Southern California
6: Marquette, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Clemson
7: Pittsburgh, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, Kent St
8: Arizona, Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Baylor
9: West Virginia, BYU, Arizona St, Oregon
10: Davidson, Illinois St, St. Mary's, Kansas St
11: Syracuse, Ohio State, Massachusetts, Mississippi St
12: Villanova, Mississippi, Arkansas, Stephen F. Austin
13: Western Kentucky, Cornell, Oral Roberts, UC Santa Barbara
14: George Mason, Siena, Belmont, San Diego
15: UMBC, Utah St, Winthrop, Portland St
16: American, Austin Peay, Morgan St, Sacred Heart, Alabama St

Last 4 In: Mississippi St, Villanova, Mississippi, Arkansas
First 4 Out: South Alabama, Florida St, Kentucky, Creighton
Next 4 Out: Dayton, UNLV, VCU, Saint Joseph's
A few observations:

- Obviously, the San Diego win over Gonzaga took an at-large bid away from the bubble teams, as Gonzaga and St. Mary's are already safely in. Not a bad deal for the West Coast conference, three bids for the 15th best conference.

- VCU and potentially South Alabama may have given 1-2 bids back to the field. I think VCU is definitely out. South Alabama still has a chance at an at-large bid. They are likely helped by inflated RPI numbers (see Bubble Teams below)

- Right now, I have Syracuse and Villanova in, but they play each other in the 8/9 game of the Big East tournament. It's likely that the loser of the game will get a parting gift of an NIT bid. It seems unlikely that the Big East will ever get more than 8 bids for this reason.

- I have Illinois St in comfortably, but that 30-point thrashing by Drake can't help their cause. The Committee is supposed to look at wins and losses as opposed to margin of victory, but it's never good to have a blowout loss as the last thing the Committee sees of you. I think it says more about the quality of Drake than anything else, although I highly doubt they get the '3' seed their resume deserves.

Bubble Teams

I put up some detailed info on the remaining bubble teams, rank ordered on how I have them sorted on my S-Curve. I used ESPN's bubble watch to guide who was considered a lock and who was still on the bubble (the only exceptions to the ESPN lock were BYU and Missippi St, who I still have as bubble teams). I realize that teams like Nebraska, Wake Forest, Washington, SIU, Texas Tech, Cal, Oklahoma St, Georgia Tech and down to Cleveland St are not even in the running for an at-large bid, but I included them for comparison as they are all currently more worthy than UAB who is still considered a bubble team (ESPN also had Houston listed and they were even further down the list). Florida St and Creighton are two other teams not listed as bubble teams by ESPN, but I feel they should at least be in the conversation. Florida State seems to be in this situation every year. On the lower end of the bubble with some quality wins but overall deflated RPI numbers, a position that you don't really want to be in.

Proj				RANK		SOS		NC SOS
Seed	TEAM	W	L	JCI	RPI	JCI	RPI	JCI	RPI	QW	QL	Next Game
7	Kent St	25	6	28	27	127	117	95	63	32	34	3/13 Toledo/Bowling Green
8	Arizona	17	13	35	30	1	2	25	6	21	53	3/12 Oregon St
8	Texas A&M	21	9	32	47	48	56	275	219	27	39	3/13 Iowa St
8	Miami (FL)	20	9	34	29	46	31	276	134	29	44	3/13 North Carolina St
8	Baylor	20	9	30	40	39	33	231	147	31	33	3/13 Colorado
9	West Virginia	21	9	31	38	54	55	238	133	44	27	3/12 Providence
9	BYU	25	6	29	21	136	95	144	141	64	23	3/13 Colorado St/Wyoming
9	Arizona St	19	11	37	75	18	76	307	305	33	48	3/13 Southern Cal
9	Oregon	18	12	38	52	4	30	185	159	38	41	3/13 Washington St
10	Illinois St	23	9	39	34	83	69	178	114	35	46	None
10	St. Mary's	24	6	36	39	143	137	92	29	68	24	None
10	Kansas St	19	10	40	44	43	27	165	77	46	42	3/14 Texas A&M/Iowa St
11	Syracuse	19	12	46	45	33	7	184	18	30	69	3/12 Villanova
11	Ohio State	19	12	41	48	20	21	24	12	47	45	3/14 Michigan St
11	Massachusetts	21	9	44	41	90	66	133	82	36	58	3/13 Charlotte/Rhode Island
11	Mississippi St	21	9	42	37	84	51	219	128	52	43	3/14 Alabama/Florida
12	Villanova	19	11	45	56	47	57	233	169	34	65	3/12 Syracuse
12	Mississippi	21	9	47	43	100	60	268	120	40	60	3/13 Georgia
12	Arkansas	20	10	50	42	80	40	170	86	42	63	3/14 Auburn/Vanderbilt
	South Alabama	24	5	43	25	209	127	124	74	82	28	None
	Florida St	18	13	53	63	27	20	187	121	39	71	3/13 Wake Forest
	Kentucky	18	11	51	50	49	12	136	92	50	57	3/14 Georgia/Mississippi
	Creighton	20	10	49	51	76	72	190	102	62	52	None
	Dayton	20	9	52	33	103	41	161	34	43	66	3/12 Saint Louis
	UNLV	22	7	48	28	146	70	217	55	74	38	3/13 TCU
	VCU	24	7	58	53	189	152	76	78	55	62	None
	Saint Joseph's	18	11	61	55	73	58	134	108	37	89	3/12 Fordham
	New Mexico	24	7	57	54	178	150	310	263	77	49	3/13 Utah
	Virginia Tech	18	12	59	57	51	45	164	129	69	59	3/14 Miami/NC State
	Florida	21	10	56	65	95	85	329	273	75	50	3/13 Alabama
	Nebraska	18	11	60	97	66	110	281	312	70	56	3/13 Missouri
	Maryland	18	13	68	69	58	15	229	69	41	97	3/13 Boston College
	Wake Forest	17	12	62	87	53	84	226	268	57	72	3/13 Florida St
	Washington	16	15	63	109	6	50	204	223	61	68	3/12 California
13	Western Kentucky	23	6	54	49	197	151	99	99	112	26	3/11 Middle Tenn St
	Southern Illinois	17	14	66	60	41	13	14	4	51	98	None
	Texas Tech	15	14	64	61	8	3	84	26	67	67	3/13 Oklahoma St
	California	15	14	65	93	9	34	293	182	59	70	3/12 Washington
	Oklahoma St	15	14	69	83	15	16	177	124	65	81	3/13 Texas Tech
	Temple	18	12	71	58	82	43	67	27	49	106	3/13 LaSalle/Duquesne
	Georgia Tech	14	16	74	73	3	8	27	48	45	111	3/13 Virginia
	Wright St	21	10	70	84	128	149	191	109	58	86	None
	Rhode Island	21	10	67	66	122	104	257	193	66	78	3/12 Charlotte
	Cleveland St	19	11	76	71	108	97	111	45	53	107	3/11 Butler
	UAB	22	9	72	46	153	93	249	153	81	64	3/13 Tulsa/E Carolina

Most of the table should be pretty self-explanatory. The QW and QL numbers stand for Quality Wins and Quality Losses. It simply a summation of the difficulty of a team's wins and losses over the entire season. I'd argue that a team that is inferior to another in both QW & QL probably doesn't have a case for having a better profile than another.

For each bubble team, I show the RPI based rankings and SOS numbers side-by-side with my corresponding Colton Index figures. Remember, most (if not all) of the differences between the two are caused by nothing more than the wacky nuances of the RPI. Of course, the RPI are the numbers that the Committee has in front of them, and even if they don't play a large role in the decision-making process the Committee has to take them at face value (that they represent what they are meant to represent). So as a bubble team you much rather have inflated RPI numbers than the opposite.

The teams most likely to gain from inflated RPI numbers are: South Alabama (25 RPI vs 43), Dayton (33 vs 52), UNLV (28 vs 48), BYU (29 vs 21), Arkansas (50 vs 42), Temple (58 vs 71) and UAB (46 vs 72). Those are large difference right in the sweet spot of teams getting serious consideration. Big SOS differences include BYU (95 RPI SOS vs 136), UMass (60 vs 99), Missippi St (51 vs 84), Ole Miss (60 vs 100), Arkansas (40 vs 80), South Alabama (127 vs 209), Syracuse (7 vs 33), Dayton (41 vs 103), Maryland (15 vs 58), Temple (43 vs 82) and UAB (93 vs 153). If you followed any of my videos or blog posts in the past, you know this is driven primarily by the number (or lack of) 'bottom-feeders', sub-250 RPI opponents, a team has on its schedule, but it may also be influenced because the home/road adjustments are not accounted for in the RPI SOS measure.

The team most likely to be hurt by deflated RPI numbers is Arizona State, with a RPI of 75 vs my measure of 37. They have a RPI SOS of 76 where I have it at 18, actually tougher than a slew of bubble teams with better RPI SOS numbers such as Syracuse, Kentucky and Maryland. It's a travesty that Arizona St's schedule looks easier than Dayton's, Missippi's and UNLV's, for example. I agree with the RPI in that their non-conference schedule is extremely weak, but that NC SOS drags down their overall numbers to the point that they are barely in the conversation as a bubble team. See what the seemingly benign decision of playing teams like Florida Gulf Coast (RPI 291, non DI last year), Coppin State (266, 246 last year), Idaho (302, 305 RPI last year), and St Francis (PA) (313, RPI 321 last year) can do to your tourney chances? I currently have the Sun Devil's as a 9 seed although I'm willing to bet they don't get in. Their QW/QL profile is similar to illinois St, Kansas St, Ohio State and is superior to teams such as UMass, Missippi St, Syracuse, Villanova, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Kentucky and Maryland.

Other teams that could be hurt by deflated RPI numbers are Texas A&M (47 RPI vs 32), Baylor (40 vs 30), Oregon (52 vs 38), Villanova (56 vs 47), Florida St (63 vs 53) and Florida (65 vs 56). Again, these are real differences right in the sweet spot of teams under consideration. Besides Arizona St, Oregon is the other bubble team with a significantly deflated RPI number (30 RPI vs 4).

I plan to update my brackets on a daily basis up until Selection Sunday. I will try to update this list of bubble teams as well.