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Bracket Update - March 14th

3/14/2008
Here is my latest bracket. A lot of bubble teams are losing early in the conference tourneys. Fortunately for them, nearly everybody they are competing with is losing as well. Very few teams have strengthened their case. It seems like a very weak bubble this year, which to me means there's no telling what the Committee will do this year.

I'm probably the only one who has Florida St in, but they have a resume that stacks up just as well as the others.

1: North Carolina, Memphis, UCLA, Tennessee
2: Duke, Kansas, Texas, Georgetown
3: Wisconsin, Stanford, Washington St, Drake
4: Xavier, Butler, Louisville, Marquette
5: Indiana, Southern California, Connecticut, Notre Dame
6: Michigan St, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt, Purdue
7: Clemson, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Miami (FL)
8: Kent St, Texas A&M, Gonzaga, Arizona
9: BYU, Baylor, Arizona St, Davidson
10: Oregon, Illinois St, St. Mary's, Kansas St
11: Villanova, Ohio State, Mississippi St, Florida St
12: Syracuse, Massachusetts, Kentucky, Western Kentucky
13: Stephen F. Austin, Oral Roberts, Cornell, UC Santa Barbara
14: George Mason, Siena, San Diego, Belmont
15: Utah St, UMBC, Winthrop, Portland St
16: American, Austin Peay, Morgan St, Mt St. Mary's, Alabama St

Last 4 In: Florida St, Syracuse, Massachusetts, Kentucky
First 4 Out: Dayton, Creighton, Arkansas, UNLV
Next 4 Out: Saint Joseph's, Mississippi, Nebraska, California

Bubble Watch I think it's safe to say West Virginia is in, so I removed them from the list. I think it's safe to say Maryland, Florida and UAB are off the bubble, but I kept them on the list just so you can see how far down there are.

South Alabama continues to baffle me. How they deserve to get in ahead of a team like Arizona St is beyond me. Put their two schedules head-to-head and Arizona St has 8 of the 9 best wins. Arizona St has a lot more losses but most of them are two top Pac 10 teams. Arizona has five losses tougher than South Alabama's 'best' loss (at Vandy), and South Alabama has the two worst losses between the two teams (swept by Middle Tenn St). Unfortunately, there are two numbers that stick out.

South Alabama RPI 35
Arizona State RPI 82
If they get in and Arizona St doesn't, it's only because the RPI is wrong for both teams in different directions.

Proj    RANKSOS NC SOS   
SeedTEAMW LJCIRPIJCI RPIJCIRPIQW QLNext Game
7 Miami (FL)  21  9  30  26  46  32  278 130  28   39  3/14 Virginia Tech
8 Kent St  26  6  29  27  132  127  96 61  33   34  3/14 Miami (OH)
8 Texas A&M  22  9  31  44  53  58  271 214  29   37  3/14 Kansas St
8 Arizona  18  14  34  34  1  2  24 7  22   51  None ( 3/13 L vs Stanford)
9 BYU  26  6  32  25  141  111  152 152  65   21  3/14 San Diego St
9 Baylor  20  10  36  42  41  39  216 139  34   45  None ( 3/13 L vs Colorado)
9 Arizona St  19  12  38  82  12  71  305 299  36   47  None ( 3/13 L vs Southern California)
10 Oregon  18  13  37  56  3  22  179 155  42   42  None ( 3/13 L vs Washington St)
10 Illinois St  23  9  39  33  82  72  181 116  39   44  None ( 3/ 9 L vs Drake)
10 St. Mary's  24  6  35  37  140  139  88 30  69   23  None ( 3/ 9 L at San Diego)
10 Kansas St  19  10  40  45  42  31  171 80  46   38  3/14 Texas A&M
11 Villanova  20  12  43  51  38  43  233 168  31   62  None ( 3/13 L vs Georgetown)
11 Ohio State  19  12  41  46  24  17  28 13  51   41  3/14 Michigan St
11  Mississippi St 21  9  42   39  87  53  219 123  56  43   3/14 Alabama
11 Florida St  19  13  46  62  32  23  197 129  35   66  3/14 North Carolina
12 Syracuse  19  13  51  52  33  8  193 18  32   76  None ( 3/12 L vs Villanova)
12 Massachusetts  21  10  49  43  91  64  136 86  41   63  None ( 3/13 L vs Charlotte)
12 Kentucky  18  11  48  47  48  13  129 97  53   55  3/14 Georgia
  Dayton 21   10  52  32  92  29  155 31  40   64  None ( 3/13 L vs Xavier)
  Creighton 20   10  45  49  73  69  176 98  58   48  None ( 3/ 8 L vs Drake)
  Arkansas 20   10  53  40  84  42  199 87  50   59  3/14 Vanderbilt
  UNLV 23  7   44  28  150  78  213 52  74   36  3/14 Utah
  Saint Joseph's 20   11  58  50  80  62  138 118  37   87  3/14 Xavier
  Mississippi 21   10  56  48  104  65  274 133  45   70  None ( 3/13 L vs Georgia)
  Nebraska 19   11  55  96  66  107  281 315  63   54  3/14 Kansas
  California 16   15  59  87  5  16  283 164  49   65  None ( 3/13 L vs UCLA)
  VCU 24  7   57  55  193  159  85 88  57   61  None ( 3/ 9 L vs William & Mary)
  Oklahoma St 16   14  63  75  17  15  166 111  54   75  3/14 Texas
  South Alabama 24   6  54  35  210  125  122 67  81   40  None ( 3/10 L Middle Tenn St)
  Virginia Tech 18   12  60  59  54  52  178 142  70   58  3/14 Miami
  Georgia Tech 15   16  67  68  4  9  23 44  43   102  3/14 Duke
  Southern Illinois  17  14  64  61  40  12  11 4  52   91  None ( 3/ 7 L vs Northern Iowa)
  Temple 19   12  69  60  86  51  69 27  48   98  3/14 Charlotte
  New Mexico 24   8  62  58  173  149  309 264  76   56  None ( 3/13 L vs Utah)
  Washington 16   16  66  118  6  54  187 217  62   72  None ( 3/12 L vs California)
  Wake Forest 17   13  65  97  47  85  223 267  60   77  None ( 3/13 L vs Florida St)
  Florida 21   11  61  72  97  86  330 273  77   57  None ( 3/13 L vs Alabama)
  Texas Tech 15   15  68  69  9  4  83 26  67   73  None ( 3/13 L vs Oklahoma St)
  Wright St 21   10  70  86  129  151  183 108  59   83  None ( 3/ 7 L vs Valparaiso)
  Maryland 18   14  76  83  60  25  229 70  44   115  None ( 3/13 L vs Boston College)
  Cleveland St 19   12  75  64  95  88  105 40  55   104  None ( 3/11 L at Butler)
  Rhode Island 21   11  73  77  124  104  260 195  68   89  None ( 3/12 L vs Charlotte)
  UAB 22  10   82  54  157  92  267 162  85   74  None ( 3/13 L vs Tulsa)

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