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Bracket Update - March 16th (AM Edition)

3/16/2008
Here's my bracket as of Sunday morning. Look for one more this afternoon. I will also likely post some scenario-based seeds depending on the outcomes of this afternoon's games, although the Committee won't likely have time to fully account for the SEC and Big Ten title games.

Again, this is what I think the brackets SHOULD look like if the Selection Committee practices what it preaches (i.e., body-of-work with extra emphasis on last 10 games and quality wins to determine the most deserving teams). I'm not trying to guess what the Committee WILL do (a la Joe Lunardi). The actual brackets will look much different than mine because the Committee will use different factors and/or weight them differently from team to team, and they have the RPI numbers and all their subcomponents, which will skew the results simply because the silly nuances of the formula.

1: North Carolina, UCLA, Memphis, Tennessee
2: Kansas, Texas, Duke, Wisconsin
3: Georgetown, Stanford, Drake, Washington St
4: Butler, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Xavier
5: Southern California, Clemson, Michigan St, Marquette
6: Connecticut, Notre Dame, Indiana, Vanderbilt
7: Kent St, Purdue, Oklahoma, West Virginia
8: Texas A&M, Arizona, Gonzaga, Miami (FL)
9: BYU, Baylor, Arkansas, Davidson
10: Arizona St, Oregon, Illinois St, St. Mary's
11: Villanova, Kansas St, Florida St, UNLV
12: Mississippi St, Ohio State, Temple, Western Kentucky
13: Oral Roberts, Cornell, George Mason, Siena
14: CS Fullerton, Boise St, San Diego, Belmont
15: UMBC, Winthrop, Portland St, American
16: Austin Peay, Mt St. Mary's, Northwestern St, Coppin St, Miss Valley St

Last 4 In: Kansas St, Florida St, Mississippi St, Ohio State
First 4 Out: Syracuse, Saint Joseph's, Massachusetts, Dayton
Next 4 Out: Creighton, Virginia Tech, Mississippi, Kentucky

Bubble Teams

Here's the overview of the bubble teams again. I think everyone from Arkansas above is locks or near locks (except maybe Arizona) and the teams below South Alabama are probably barely bubble worthy, but I included them here for context if nothing else. Of the teams I have in, Florida St, Arizona St, Ohio St, Oregon and Villanova probably are at the most risk (from highest risk to lowest risk), likely to be replaced by Saint Joseph's, Virginia Tech, South Alabama, Kentucky and (grasping for a fifth team) Syracuse or Mississippi. I fully expect Florida St and Arizona St to be out of the field, despite the fact they deserve to be in.

Georgia and Illinois (go Illini!) probably 'deserve' 13 seeds if they were to win their games today, but will likely get 12 seeds by simply replacing the last bubble teams in. The Selection Committee probably won't be able to get have contingency plans any more sophisticated than that.

Proj RANKSOS NC SOS
SeedTEAMW LJCIRPIJCI RPIJCIRPIQW QL
8 Texas A&M 23 10 30 41 45 51 275 220 24 35
8 Arizona 18 14 32 37 1 2 19 4 23 48
8 Miami (FL) 21 10 34 34 50 41 282 143 32 46
9 BYU 27 7 33 25 130 97 145 144 57 22
9 Baylor 20 10 36 42 46 47 208 127 36 38
9 Arkansas 22 10 39 26 70 20 194 82 30 57
10 Arizona St 19 12 37 83 16 77 305 294 38 42
10 Oregon 18 13 38 58 4 37 185 169 43 37
10 Illinois St 23 9 40 33 85 73 186 115 42 40
10 St. Mary's 24 6 35 36 139 136 86 28 72 21
11 Villanova 20 12 43 51 38 48 231 158 34 61
11 Kansas St 19 11 41 50 44 33 179 86 49 43
11 Florida St 19 14 47 59 24 15 196 130 37 66
12 Mississippi St 22 10 45 39 87 57 217 125 50 51
12 Ohio State 19 13 44 49 23 17 25 13 51 44
Syracuse 19 13 51 55 36 9 199 20 35 76
Saint Joseph's 21 12 56 45 73 53 137 116 29 99
Massachusetts 21 10 50 43 93 71 139 89 45 62
Dayton 21 10 49 32 92 34 149 27 41 65
Creighton 20 10 46 47 77 66 175 91 63 45
Virginia Tech 19 13 52 53 41 38 177 136 55 58
Mississippi 21 10 53 46 103 64 271 123 46 68
Kentucky 18 12 58 57 54 22 130 98 53 63
Nebraska 19 12 55 96 55 94 280 310 69 52
VCU 24 7 57 54 190 160 83 83 60 56
California 16 15 59 92 5 26 290 175 52 64
Oklahoma St 16 15 63 73 11 11 152 102 54 78
South Alabama 24 6 54 38 214 127 126 69 83 36
Georgia Tech 15 17 67 67 3 7 23 45 44 102
Southern Illinois 17 14 66 62 49 16 15 6 58 90
Washington 16 16 65 121 7 60 181 223 65 69
New Mexico 24 8 62 60 176 155 311 269 81 53
Wake Forest 17 13 64 100 52 86 219 268 68 71
Florida 21 11 61 72 95 87 328 271 74 55
Maryland 18 14 75 84 59 29 228 65 47 110

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