RPI Plus: A simple fix to the RPI

Buried deep in Part 2 of my 3-part presentation exposing the flaws of the RPI is a proposal for a simple, common sense fix to some of the major problems with the RPI. I called it RPI+ because it takes the RPI and adds an extra performance component to come up with a more accurate number.

Essentially, all it's doing is asking 'If Team X has a RPI of 100, did they outperform or underperform expectations for team with that RPI and that schedule. A team that won more games than expected for its RPI would have a pretty strong case that its rating was too low. A team that lost more games than expected for its RPI would be viewed as being rated too high. This is basically what I do with the Colton Index, only I start with the win-loss record and do multiple iterations of the expectations and performance relative to expectations until the complete ranking set is as correct as it can be. The RPI+ proposal uses just one iteration of the performance component (although additional iterations would only make it better). You'll see in a minute that just one iteration does have a significant impact. Also, because you can capture the home-road adjustments more accurately in the performance component, you really wouldn't need to do the crude 40% home/road adjustment upfront. You'd be better off just using the old RPI and let the home/road show up in the performance component. However, I used the new RPI here simply because it makes for easier comparison of teams that would be most impacted.

The other proposed change is to finally abandon the deeply flawed, linear RPI SOS measure. Since we are calculating expected winning percentage for the performance component, it's easy to implement here. The proposed SOS captures the home/road influence accurately and recognizes that SOS is not linear (playing the 1st, 2nd and 330th ranked teams on the road IS NOT the same as playing the 110th, 111th and 112th rated teams at home).

Below is the new RPI and RPI+ for the top 90 RPI teams plus 6 teams who would be top 90 under RPI+. The 'Exp Wins' column shows the Expected Number of Wins for a team with that RPI given its schedule. So Tennessee would be expected to win 28.11 with its schedule if it were the #1 RPI team. Since they won 28 games, you'd expect their 'true' ranking to be slightly lower than that. The far right column shows the expect number of wins in the second iteration (if you account for the change in a team's rating for RPI+ and the change in the rating of all its opponents). I only show it here for information purposes, so you can get some sense directionally which way teams would go if you added additional performance iterations. The top 20 overperformers relative to RPI are shaded in yellow. The top 20 underperformers relative to RPI are shaded in orange.

Just adding the one performance components is a huge improvement in the RPI. The wins versus expectations are off by an average of 0.89 wins per team in the new RPI. Adding that one performance component brings that number down to 0.34 (the Colton Index is off by 0.04 per team). The other way I like to look at these rankings is by measuring the amount of informational lift that ranking provides over the most simple rank order you could think of...simply sorting teams by their win-loss record. We use alternative rankings because we know win-loss record doesn't tell the full story. Presumably, the ranking is a more accurate reflection of what's going on during the course of a basketball season, otherwise we wouldn't use it. Therefore, it's easy to measure different rating systems on how much additional value they provide.

Traditionally, the new RPI has been about 5-6% worse than the old RPI, and the Colton Index has provided 40-50% more lift versus the baseline relative to the new RPI. The 2007-08 season is no exception. I know it's hard to believe, but the old RPI is 5.2% better than the new RPI. The Colton Index outperforms the new RPI by 44%. RPI+ is 33.5% better than the new RPI. This seems like an easy fix that would provide the Selection Committee with significantly better information to make their decisions.

A couple teams to note from the table below:

- Vanderbilt seemed to be overseeded as a 4 seed, and we see their performance was over a game worse than expected from that lofty 12th-rated RPI. The 2nd iteration would suggest they would go down even futher with additional iterations. UNLV is another team that seemed to be overseeded as well.

- The Selection Committee doesn't seem to have much faith in very strong RPI numbers for mid-majors (see Southern Illinois last year). Butler seemed to suffer from this bias this year, although the RPI+ numbers suggest they outperformed their 17th-rated RPI.

- Arizona St is one of the biggest movers amongst tourney or bubble teams. They move up 30 spots when you consider they outperformed their RPI rating by 1.73 games. Also, by moving away from the linear nature of SOS, the 'bottom feeders' in their non-conference schedule don't hurt as much and their SOS increases from 77 to 32.

- South Alabama doesn't move in RPI+ (they would move down in future iterations), but just check out that SOS impact. 127 vs 203.

			EXP WINS		RANK		SOS		EXP WINS2
TEAM	W	L	RPI	RES	RPI	RPI+	RPI	RPI+	RPI+	RES2
Tennessee	28	4	28.11	-0.11	1	3	1	8	28.30	-0.30
North Carolina	32	2	30.51	1.49	2	1	3	21	31.46	0.54
Memphis	33	1	31.29	1.71	3	2	27	115	32.28	0.72
UCLA	30	3	28.32	1.68	4	4	14	22	29.42	0.58
Kansas	30	3	28.90	1.10	5	5	50	72	29.68	0.32
Texas	27	6	27.25	-0.25	6	8	4	6	26.97	0.03
Duke	27	5	26.49	0.51	7	6	8	10	26.89	0.11
Georgetown	27	5	26.44	0.56	8	7	32	43	26.97	0.03
Xavier	27	6	27.34	-0.34	9	11	24	55	27.50	-0.50
Drake	26	4	25.35	0.65	10	10	68	92	26.03	-0.03
Wisconsin	29	4	27.33	1.67	11	9	61	86	28.50	0.50
Vanderbilt	26	7	27.12	-1.12	12	17	41	83	26.55	-0.55
Louisville	24	8	24.50	-0.50	13	14	6	23	24.02	-0.02
Stanford	26	7	25.06	0.94	14	13	56	29	25.72	0.28
Pittsburgh	25	9	25.03	-0.03	15	15	20	12	24.92	0.08
Michigan St	25	8	25.58	-0.58	16	22	43	58	24.80	0.20
Butler	29	3	27.40	1.60	17	12	128	156	28.88	0.12
Connecticut	24	8	24.10	-0.10	18	21	35	40	23.74	0.26
Clemson	23	9	22.91	0.09	19	20	17	19	22.91	0.09
Marquette	23	9	22.50	0.50	20	19	21	15	22.81	0.19
Kent St	28	6	27.73	0.27	21	24	111	140	28.24	-0.24
Indiana	25	7	24.49	0.51	22	23	59	80	25.10	-0.10
Washington St	24	8	22.72	1.28	23	16	46	25	23.61	0.39
UNLV	25	7	26.17	-1.17	24	34	63	141	25.48	-0.48
BYU	27	7	26.78	0.22	25	25	97	122	27.30	-0.30
Notre Dame	24	7	22.76	1.24	26	18	81	67	23.89	0.11
Oklahoma	22	11	22.16	-0.16	27	31	13	24	21.88	0.12
Southern California	21	11	20.68	0.32	28	27	9	3	20.49	0.51
West Virginia	23	10	22.64	0.36	29	28	45	33	22.85	0.15
Gonzaga	25	7	23.92	1.08	30	26	93	102	24.99	0.01
			EXP WINS		RANK		SOS		EXP WINS2
TEAM	W	L	RPI	RES	RPI	RPI+	RPI	RPI+	RPI+	RES2
Arkansas	22	11	23.29	-1.29	31	40	25	59	21.98	0.02
Dayton	21	10	22.39	-1.39	32	42	33	78	21.16	-0.16
Illinois St	23	9	23.85	-0.85	33	39	71	93	22.84	0.16
Miami (FL)	21	10	21.22	-0.22	34	36	42	48	21.01	-0.01
Davidson	25	6	24.43	0.57	35	30	129	150	24.96	0.04
St. Mary's	24	6	23.28	0.72	36	29	138	145	24.16	-0.16
Arizona	18	14	19.27	-1.27	37	46	2	1	17.19	0.81
South Alabama	24	6	24.19	-0.19	38	37	127	203	24.60	-0.60
Western Kentucky	25	6	24.62	0.38	39	35	142	201	25.53	-0.53
Mississippi St	22	10	22.33	-0.33	40	41	58	85	22.26	-0.26
Texas A&M	23	10	21.99	1.01	41	33	52	56	23.06	-0.06
Massachusetts	21	10	21.31	-0.31	42	43	70	84	21.17	-0.17
Baylor	20	10	19.71	0.29	43	38	49	54	19.98	0.02
Saint Joseph's	21	12	21.55	-0.55	44	48	53	60	21.23	-0.23
Purdue	24	8	22.58	1.42	45	32	114	98	23.89	0.11
Creighton	20	10	20.40	-0.40	46	50	66	79	19.96	0.04
Temple	21	12	22.15	-1.15	47	58	51	73	20.65	0.35
Mississippi	21	10	21.31	-0.31	48	49	65	91	21.07	-0.07
Ohio State	19	13	19.61	-0.61	49	54	18	27	18.70	0.30
Kansas St	19	11	19.33	-0.33	50	51	34	51	18.61	0.39
Villanova	20	12	19.78	0.22	51	45	47	39	20.04	-0.04
Virginia Tech	19	13	19.98	-0.98	52	63	39	38	18.45	0.55
Oral Roberts	23	8	23.72	-0.72	53	59	157	191	23.56	-0.56
VCU	24	7	23.61	0.39	54	44	161	189	24.45	-0.45
Syracuse	19	13	19.68	-0.68	55	61	10	34	18.50	0.50
UAB	22	10	23.56	-1.56	56	70	95	155	22.12	-0.12
Kentucky	18	12	18.03	-0.03	57	55	19	41	18.02	-0.02
Oregon	18	13	18.02	-0.02	58	56	37	9	17.36	0.64
New Mexico	24	8	23.14	0.86	59	47	155	165	24.51	-0.51
Florida St	19	14	19.11	-0.11	60	60	15	16	18.49	0.51
			EXP WINS		RANK		SOS		EXP WINS2
TEAM	W	L	RPI	RES	RPI	RPI+	RPI	RPI+	RPI+	RES2
George Mason	23	10	24.79	-1.79	61	83	126	211	23.20	-0.20
Southern Illinois	17	14	18.40	-1.40	62	77	16	42	16.09	0.91
Cleveland St	19	12	20.40	-1.40	63	86	85	105	18.65	0.35
Stephen F. Austin	22	5	21.21	0.79	64	52	263	297	22.42	-0.42
Cornell	21	5	20.62	0.38	65	62	265	292	21.35	-0.35
Siena	22	10	23.09	-1.09	66	85	120	179	22.21	-0.21
Georgia Tech	15	17	15.70	-0.70	67	76	7	2	14.43	0.57
Charlotte	20	13	20.17	-0.17	68	71	64	95	20.12	-0.12
IUPUI	23	7	23.19	-0.19	69	73	238	277	23.44	-0.44
Utah St	23	10	24.93	-1.93	70	102	168	267	23.44	-0.44
Florida	21	11	19.92	1.08	71	57	87	94	21.22	-0.22
Miami (OH)	17	15	17.93	-0.93	72	89	54	50	16.83	0.17
Nevada	20	11	21.53	-1.53	73	100	132	161	20.18	-0.18
Texas Tech	15	15	15.65	-0.65	74	84	5	7	14.46	0.54
Akron	23	10	22.53	0.47	75	65	135	157	23.37	-0.37
Ohio	19	12	20.07	-1.07	76	94	109	123	18.94	0.06
Rhode Island	21	11	20.47	0.53	77	64	107	124	21.27	-0.27
Oklahoma St	16	15	15.94	0.06	78	72	12	11	15.85	0.15
Belmont	24	8	24.46	-0.46	79	82	229	293	24.81	-0.81
CS Fullerton	23	8	23.29	-0.29	80	79	199	249	23.24	-0.24
Houston	22	9	21.62	0.38	81	69	146	171	22.31	-0.31
San Diego St	19	12	19.80	-0.80	82	90	99	118	19.00	0.00
Arizona St	19	12	17.27	1.73	83	53	77	32	18.58	0.42
Austin Peay	24	10	26.00	-2.00	84	116	205	288	25.12	-1.12
Maryland	18	14	18.05	-0.05	85	80	31	63	17.89	0.11
Wright St	21	10	20.21	0.79	86	66	149	144	21.35	-0.35
Boise St	24	8	23.59	0.41	87	74	196	276	24.61	-0.61
UMBC	23	8	23.57	-0.57	88	95	264	302	23.57	-0.57
UC Santa Barbara	22	8	21.62	0.38	89	75	208	221	22.33	-0.33
American	21	11	22.58	-1.58	90	120	158	237	21.48	-0.48
California	16	15	15.51	0.49	92	81	28	14	15.61	0.39
Nebraska	19	12	17.39	1.61	96	68	94	69	18.72	0.28
Wake Forest	17	13	15.26	1.74	100	67	86	52	17.20	-0.20
Minnesota	20	13	18.75	1.25	101	78	113	87	20.03	-0.03
Providence	15	16	13.62	1.38	112	87	44	17	15.09	-0.09
Washington	16	16	14.06	1.94	121	88	60	18	15.78	0.22

The Bracket - Initial Thoughts

Here is my final, data-driven bracket projections taking into consideration all of the conference championship games (my 'Final bracket' that I submitted was an average of two different outcomes and assumed Arkansas beat Georgia.

1: North Carolina, UCLA, Memphis, Tennessee
2: Kansas, Duke, Wisconsin, Texas
3: Georgetown, Stanford, Drake, Washington St
4: Butler, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Xavier
5: Southern California, Clemson, Connecticut, Marquette
6: Michigan St, Notre Dame, Indiana, Kent St
7: Vanderbilt, Purdue, West Virginia, Oklahoma
8: Texas A&M, Arizona, Gonzaga, Miami (FL)
9: BYU, Davidson, Arizona St, Baylor
10: Oregon, Illinois St, St. Mary's, Villanova
11: Arkansas, Kansas St, Florida St, UNLV
12: Ohio State, Temple, Western Kentucky, Oral Roberts
13: Cornell, George Mason, Siena, Georgia
14: CS Fullerton, Boise St, San Diego, Belmont
15: UMBC, Winthrop, Portland St, American
16: Austin Peay, UT Arlington, Mt St. Mary's, Coppin St, Miss Valley St

Last 4 In: Arkansas, Kansas St, Florida St, Ohio State
First 4 Out: Syracuse, Mississippi St, Saint Joseph's, Massachusetts
Next 4 Out: Dayton, Creighton, Virginia Tech, Mississippi

This one probably performed worst than my previous version since it drops Mississippi St. I had 50 teams within 1 seedline of actual, which I'm sure will be the worst of all bracketologists. Most of my differences were not unexpected, I think there's a good chance that a lot got all of the teams and nearly all of the seeds right. My hats off to you for predicting what the Committee would do.

Of course, that's not what I'm about. I'm all about exposing the weaknesses in the RPI and highlighting the teams that deviated most from the 'body-of-work' approach that the Selection Committee continues to say they judge teams on. Overall, I think the Selection Committee did a good job with the information they had in front of them, especially given some of the unique situations that went down this week. However, I think that misleading information may have skewed their decision making, and ultimately caused less deserving teams in the tournament at the expense of more deserving teams. Obviously, this wasn't the intent of the Selection Committe, they are hard working, well-intentioned people that take this task seriously. I only blame the NCAA for continuing to provide the Selection Committee with bad information that makes already a tough job that much tougher, especially when these problems would be easily fixed.

I will likely dive deeper into some of these issues later this week, but here's the list of winners and losers.

Losers - Teams Lower Than They Should've Been

Proj	Act				RANK		SOS		NC SOS
Seed	Seed	TEAM	W	L	JCI	RPI	JCI	RPI	JCI	RPI	QW	QL
3	5	Drake	26	4	11	10	82	68	114	126	15	15
4	7	Butler	29	3	12	17	127	128	78	109	21	7
6	8	Indiana	25	7	23	22	66	57	150	71	22	20
6	9	Kent St	28	6	25	21	128	111	96	56	27	30
8	10	Arizona	18	14	33	37	1	2	19	5	23	48
9	11	Baylor	20	10	36	43	47	48	213	130	38	40
10	12	Villanova	20	12	42	51	37	47	228	157	34	59
9		Arizona St	19	12	37	83	17	77	305	293	39	42
10		Illinois St	23	9	39	33	84	72	184	115	42	38
12		Ohio State	19	13	43	49	24	17	25	12	51	43
11		Florida St	19	14	47	59	23	14	197	128	36	65

The average Colton Index for these teams is 32 versus an average RPI of 39. But the RPI's aren't deflated across the board. There seems to be a bias against the mid-majors here...an assumption that teams such as Drake, Butler and Kent State (and Illinois St by association) aren't as good as their records or RPI's indicate, or put in other words, they didn't play anybody therefore have inflated records. Well, each of those mid-majors have profiles of wins and losses factoring in weaker schedules that still put them as deserving higher seeds, so penalizing them further would be like giving them losses for games they either won or didn't play. Drake had a 26-4 record with an RPI SOS of 68. Notre Dame had a weaker schedule (according to the RPI) and went 24-7 with a RPI SOS of 81, and had the same seed. But Kansas has a RPI SOS of 60 and got a 1 seed with a 29-3 record. There seems to be a disconnect.

I want to dive into the issue deeper later this week, but Arizona St simply flat out got screwed of the tournament this year. Of course, they didn't do themselves any favors with their non-conference scheduling. I can't argue that their non-conference wasn't weak, I had it even easier than the RPI (305 vs 293). However, the difference comes with how much this weighs on the final decision. I consider it as part of the body of work and Arizona St still rans 37th overall even with that very weak schedule (the cupcake wins don't tell us much about how good Arizona St really is, therefore don't help their profile much at all). In the RPI, these games drag down the team's overall RPI and SOS to the point like they barely look like a bubble team at all. (Plus, if the Committee is going to list that as a reason you didn't get picked, then they are already overweighting that factor more than it should be. Of course, Stanford and Notre Dame had equally weak non-conference SOS's and it didn't hurt them at all. Notre Dame even got seeded a little higher than expected.) Even if you win those games against the cupcakes, just showing up drags your RPI down. The seemingly harmless decision of playing Florida Gulf Coast, Idaho and St Francis (PA) is what kept them out of the tournament, not what they did or didn't do during the other 29 games of the season. If they had played Vermont, Wichita St and Navy instead (games they still would've won), they'd be playing in the NCAA instead of the NIT right now.

I could (and may) write a whole post about the plight of Florida St. This is the third year in a row that I felt they deserved to get in but didn't. They are the quinticessential bubble team. But every year they have a deflated RPI that's right in the 40-60 sweet spot, an undesirable position to be in. Check out their numbers the last three years.

2007-08: JCI 47, RPI 60
2006-07 JCI 33, RPI 40
2005-06 JCI 37, RPI 63

You gotta feel for these guys. Every year there are going to be winners and losers in this process, but imagine if it was your team that was on the outside looking in for three years in a row. And based on e-mails I've received from Seminole fans, it seems like they've resigned themselves to the fact that it will keep on happening. Florida St gets so little respect that they weren't even listed among the 8-9 teams more 'most surprising team left out' fan poll.

Winners - Teams Higher Than They Should've Been

Proj	Act				RANK		SOS		NC SOS
Seed	Seed	TEAM	W	L	JCI	RPI	JCI	RPI	JCI	RPI	QW	QL
7	4	Vanderbilt	26	7	24	12	91	40	277	93	30	25
11	8	UNLV	25	7	40	24	152	63	221	60	62	34
	8	Mississippi St	22	10	45	40	90	58	217	124	50	51
	10	South Alabama	24	6	53	38	214	127	127	69	83	35
	11	Saint Joseph's	21	12	54	45	73	51	135	116	29	99
	11	Kentucky	18	12	60	58	58	21	129	98	55	63
15	13	Winthrop	20	11	128	107	211	178	56	38	112	123

Here's where you can really see a pattern. The average team listed here has a RPI of 46 and average Colton Index of 58, and average RPI SOS of 77 vs 127, and an average RPI NC SOS of 85 vs 166. Remember those differences are based purely on the nuance (ie flaws) of the RPI formula. It's clear that the RPI has a role in the process. It's almost unfathomable that the NCAA would rely on SOS numbers that may be off by 90 or more (look at Vandy's NC SOS of 93 vs 277...yikes!) slots for any given team. How does the Committee make any informed decisions using inputs with margins of error that large? Certainly, it skews the profiles of Vandy, UNLV, Mississippi St and South Alabama in particular.

The SEC was the main beneficiary of the seeding process, as the Committee must've felt that Mississippi St and Kentucky were better than their records and profiles indicated (or maybe it was just the Silve factor). The only way to determine strength of a conference is to view how the perform against non-conference foes. Unfortunately, nearly all of this occurs in the first half of the season. The rest of the season is just teams beating up on each other in conference. The SEC doesn't fare too well against other conferences, mainly because Kentucky, Florida and Missippi St performed poorly in non-conference play. It drags down the conference looks overall. Maybe it's true that those teams improved as the season went on, but is it 'body-of-work' or not? I even factored in last 10 games and Kentucky was still way down the list. By discounting their non-conference season, you might as well be giving Kentucky wins for games that they lost.

THIRTEEN TEAMS MORE DESERVING THAN SOUTH ALABAMA

South Alabama is the anti-Arizona St. The danger of being a bubble team with a deflated RPI is that there's going to be less deserving bubble teams with inflated RPI's of the same amount or more. South Alabama's profile and tourney-worthiness falls apart if their RPI were 53 instead of 38 and SOS was 214 instead of 127. I have them 83rd in quality wins (a summation of a team's wins scaled by difficulty), the next closest at-large is BYU at 56th. And considering they got a 10 seed, it looks like they got in the tournament by a pretty safe margin.

Proj	Act				RANK		SOS		NC SOS
Seed	Seed	TEAM	W	L	JCI	RPI	JCI	RPI	JCI	RPI	QW	QL
9		Arizona St	19	12	37	83	17	77	305	293	39	42
10		Illinois St	23	9	39	33	84	72	184	115	42	38
11		Florida St	19	14	47	59	23	14	197	128	36	65
12		Ohio State	19	13	43	49	24	17	25	12	51	43
		Syracuse	19	13	51	55	36	9	195	20	35	72
		Massachusetts	21	10	50	42	93	71	138	88	43	61
		Dayton	21	10	49	32	92	33	147	26	41	64
		Creighton	20	10	46	46	76	65	177	91	63	45
		Virginia Tech	19	13	52	52	38	38	176	135	53	55
		Mississippi	21	10	55	48	105	67	269	122	47	67
		VCU	24	7	57	54	191	161	82	85	60	56
		Nebraska	19	12	56	97	57	94	281	310	69	52
	11	Kentucky	18	12	60	58	58	21	129	98	55	63
		California	16	15	58	92	5	26	291	175	52	62
	10	South Alabama	24	6	53	38	214	127	127	69	83	35

Bracket Projections - Mar 16 (PM Update - FINAL)

Here is my final bracket projection. Below, I ran the Colton Index-based seedings on all of the remaining 8 scenarios, but I doubt the Committee has built that much flexibility into the brackets. So I'm putting my stake in the ground with a bracket projecting that Wisconsin and Arkansas win (then averaging the rank between the outcome of Texas vs Kansas). If Georgia and/or Illinois win (go Illini!), they will simply replace the last two teams in.

Just like every other year, I fully expect that I will finish the worst amongst all of the bracketologists. However, I'd caution against thinking this is a black mark against my rating system or something. I'm simply churning out a data-driven brackets that is based on the things the Committee says to value, mostly body-of-work. And more importantly, I don't rely on the RPI at all. Where the actual seedings differ from mine will highlight exactly where the Committee veered from this consistent, objective approach and/or relied on misleading information from the RPI or any of its subcomponents.

Final Bracket Projections
1: North Carolina, UCLA, Memphis, Tennessee
2: Kansas, Texas, Duke, Wisconsin
3: Georgetown, Stanford, Drake, Washington St
4: Butler, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Xavier
5: Southern California, Michigan St, Clemson, Marquette
6: Connecticut, Notre Dame, Indiana, Vanderbilt
7: Kent St, Purdue, Oklahoma, West Virginia
8: Texas A&M, Gonzaga, Arizona, Miami (FL)
9: Arkansas, Baylor, BYU, Davidson
10: Arizona St, Oregon, Illinois St, St. Mary's
11: Villanova, Kansas St, Mississippi St, Florida St
12: UNLV, Ohio State, Temple, Western Kentucky
13: Oral Roberts, Cornell, George Mason, Siena
14: CS Fullerton, Boise St, San Diego, Belmont
15: UMBC, Winthrop, Portland St, American
16: Austin Peay, UT Arlington, Mt St. Mary's, Coppin St, Miss Valley St

Last 4 In: Kansas St, Mississippi St, Florida St*, Ohio State*
First 4 Out: Syracuse, Saint Joseph's, Massachusetts, Dayton
Next 4 Out: Creighton, Mississippi, Virginia Tech, Kentucky
* Potentially replaced by Illinois (go Illini!) and/or Georgia

I think it's safe to say the teams most as risk are Florida St, Arizona St, Ohio St, Oregon and Villanova probably are at the most risk (from highest risk to lowest risk), likely to be replaced by Saint Joseph's, Virginia Tech, South Alabama, Kentucky and (grasping for a fifth team) Syracuse or Mississippi. I fully expect Florida St and Arizona St to be out of the field, despite the fact they deserve to be in.

If you were able to factor in the results of the remaining three games completely, my approach would come up with the following seeds based on the 8 potential scenarios below.

Scenario A: Georgia, Kansas, Illinois win
Scenario B: Georgia, Kansas, Wisconsin win
Scenario C: Arkansas, Kansas, Illinois win
Scenario D: Arkansas, Kansas, Wisconsin win
Scenario E: Georgia, Texas, Illinois win
Scenario F: Georgia, Texas, Wisconsin win
Scenario G: Arkansas, Texas, Illinois win
Scenario H: Arkansas, Texas, Wisconsin win

Team	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H
North Carolina	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
UCLA	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Memphis	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Tennessee	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2
Kansas	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Texas	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1
Duke	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
Wisconsin	3	2	3	2	3	2	3	2
Georgetown	2	3	2	3	2	3	2	3
Stanford	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Drake	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Washington St	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Butler	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Pittsburgh	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Louisville	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Xavier	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
Southern California	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Clemson	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Michigan St	6	6	6	6	6	5	6	5
Marquette	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
Connecticut	5	5	5	5	5	6	5	6
Notre Dame	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Indiana	6	6	6	6	6	6	6	6
Vanderbilt	7	7	6	6	7	7	6	6
Kent St	6	6	7	7	6	6	7	7
Purdue	7	7	7	7	8	7	8	7
Oklahoma	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
West Virginia	7	7	7	7	7	8	7	8
Texas A&M	8	8	8	8	7	7	7	7
Gonzaga	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Arizona	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Miami (FL)	8	8	8	8	8	8	8	8
Arkansas	11	11	9	9	11	11	9	9
BYU	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Baylor	9	9	9	9	9	9	9	9
Davidson	9	9	9	9	9	9	10	9
Arizona St	9	9	10	10	9	9	9	10
Oregon	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Illinois St	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
St. Mary's	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
Villanova	10	10	11	11	10	10	11	11
Kansas St	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
Mississippi St			11	11			11	11
Florida St	11	11	11	11	11	11	11	11
UNLV	11	11	12	12	11	11	12	12
Ohio State		12		12		12		12
Temple	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Western Kentucky	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
Oral Roberts	12	12	12	13	12	12	12	13
Illinois	12		13		12		13
Cornell	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
George Mason	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Siena	13	13	13	13	13	13	13	13
Georgia	13	13			13	13
CS Fullerton	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Boise St	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
San Diego	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
Belmont	14	14	14	14	14	14	14	14
UMBC	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Winthrop	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Portland St	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
American	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
Austin Peay	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
UT Arlington	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Mt St. Mary's	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Coppin St	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16
Miss Valley St	16	16	16	16	16	16	16	16

You'll notice some flip-flopping of seeds based on the last three games, but I think these are most likely already set in stone. Texas would be worthy as a 1 seed if they beat Kansas, but Kansas wouldn't have enough to overcome Tennessee if they beat Texas. It's doubtful that the Committee has this type of contingency in place. They either the winner of the Texas/Kansas game as a 1 seed, the loser as a 2 seed. Or they have both as a 2 seed and Tennessee locked in as a 1 seed. The same goes for Wisconsin, who could move ahead of Georgetown as a 2 seed with a win over Illinois. I'm guessing they already have Wisconsin as a 2 or a 3 (probably a 3) and the outcome of today's game won't change it.

Once the brackets come out, I'll do some additional analysis on teams that were overseeded and underseeded relative to my projections.

Bracket Update - March 16th (AM Edition)

Here's my bracket as of Sunday morning. Look for one more this afternoon. I will also likely post some scenario-based seeds depending on the outcomes of this afternoon's games, although the Committee won't likely have time to fully account for the SEC and Big Ten title games.

Again, this is what I think the brackets SHOULD look like if the Selection Committee practices what it preaches (i.e., body-of-work with extra emphasis on last 10 games and quality wins to determine the most deserving teams). I'm not trying to guess what the Committee WILL do (a la Joe Lunardi). The actual brackets will look much different than mine because the Committee will use different factors and/or weight them differently from team to team, and they have the RPI numbers and all their subcomponents, which will skew the results simply because the silly nuances of the formula.

1: North Carolina, UCLA, Memphis, Tennessee
2: Kansas, Texas, Duke, Wisconsin
3: Georgetown, Stanford, Drake, Washington St
4: Butler, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Xavier
5: Southern California, Clemson, Michigan St, Marquette
6: Connecticut, Notre Dame, Indiana, Vanderbilt
7: Kent St, Purdue, Oklahoma, West Virginia
8: Texas A&M, Arizona, Gonzaga, Miami (FL)
9: BYU, Baylor, Arkansas, Davidson
10: Arizona St, Oregon, Illinois St, St. Mary's
11: Villanova, Kansas St, Florida St, UNLV
12: Mississippi St, Ohio State, Temple, Western Kentucky
13: Oral Roberts, Cornell, George Mason, Siena
14: CS Fullerton, Boise St, San Diego, Belmont
15: UMBC, Winthrop, Portland St, American
16: Austin Peay, Mt St. Mary's, Northwestern St, Coppin St, Miss Valley St

Last 4 In: Kansas St, Florida St, Mississippi St, Ohio State
First 4 Out: Syracuse, Saint Joseph's, Massachusetts, Dayton
Next 4 Out: Creighton, Virginia Tech, Mississippi, Kentucky

Bubble Teams

Here's the overview of the bubble teams again. I think everyone from Arkansas above is locks or near locks (except maybe Arizona) and the teams below South Alabama are probably barely bubble worthy, but I included them here for context if nothing else. Of the teams I have in, Florida St, Arizona St, Ohio St, Oregon and Villanova probably are at the most risk (from highest risk to lowest risk), likely to be replaced by Saint Joseph's, Virginia Tech, South Alabama, Kentucky and (grasping for a fifth team) Syracuse or Mississippi. I fully expect Florida St and Arizona St to be out of the field, despite the fact they deserve to be in.

Georgia and Illinois (go Illini!) probably 'deserve' 13 seeds if they were to win their games today, but will likely get 12 seeds by simply replacing the last bubble teams in. The Selection Committee probably won't be able to get have contingency plans any more sophisticated than that.

Proj				RANK		SOS		NC SOS
Seed	TEAM	W	L	JCI	RPI	JCI	RPI	JCI	RPI	QW	QL
8	Texas A&M	23	10	30	41	45	51	275	220	24	35
8	Arizona	18	14	32	37	1	2	19	4	23	48
8	Miami (FL)	21	10	34	34	50	41	282	143	32	46
9	BYU	27	7	33	25	130	97	145	144	57	22
9	Baylor	20	10	36	42	46	47	208	127	36	38
9	Arkansas	22	10	39	26	70	20	194	82	30	57
10	Arizona St	19	12	37	83	16	77	305	294	38	42
10	Oregon	18	13	38	58	4	37	185	169	43	37
10	Illinois St	23	9	40	33	85	73	186	115	42	40
10	St. Mary's	24	6	35	36	139	136	86	28	72	21
11	Villanova	20	12	43	51	38	48	231	158	34	61
11	Kansas St	19	11	41	50	44	33	179	86	49	43
11	Florida St	19	14	47	59	24	15	196	130	37	66
12	Mississippi St	22	10	45	39	87	57	217	125	50	51
12	Ohio State	19	13	44	49	23	17	25	13	51	44
	Syracuse	19	13	51	55	36	9	199	20	35	76
	Saint Joseph's	21	12	56	45	73	53	137	116	29	99
	Massachusetts	21	10	50	43	93	71	139	89	45	62
	Dayton	21	10	49	32	92	34	149	27	41	65
	Creighton	20	10	46	47	77	66	175	91	63	45
	Virginia Tech	19	13	52	53	41	38	177	136	55	58
	Mississippi	21	10	53	46	103	64	271	123	46	68
	Kentucky	18	12	58	57	54	22	130	98	53	63
	Nebraska	19	12	55	96	55	94	280	310	69	52
	VCU	24	7	57	54	190	160	83	83	60	56
	California	16	15	59	92	5	26	290	175	52	64
	Oklahoma St	16	15	63	73	11	11	152	102	54	78
	South Alabama	24	6	54	38	214	127	126	69	83	36
	Georgia Tech	15	17	67	67	3	7	23	45	44	102
	Southern Illinois	17	14	66	62	49	16	15	6	58	90
	Washington	16	16	65	121	7	60	181	223	65	69
	New Mexico	24	8	62	60	176	155	311	269	81	53
	Wake Forest	17	13	64	100	52	86	219	268	68	71
	Florida	21	11	61	72	95	87	328	271	74	55
	Maryland	18	14	75	84	59	29	228	65	47	110

Bracket Update - March 14th (Afternoon Edition)

I updated the Colton Index ratings with some of the early Friday games, so we have a new bracket as well. Arkansas is leading late against Vandy, Kentucky and UNLV can help themselves with wins tonight. Virginia Tech still has a pulse, but they'll have to beat North Carolina tomorrow to have any chance.

Of the teams I have in my bracket, I think Arizona St, Florida St and Syracuse are the biggest risks of not making it in the end, potentially replaced by Arkansas, UNLV and either Dayton or South Alabama.

1: North Carolina, Memphis, UCLA, Tennessee
2: Duke, Texas, Kansas, Georgetown
3: Wisconsin, Stanford, Washington St, Drake
4: Xavier, Butler, Louisville, Marquette
5: Michigan St, Indiana, Southern California, Connecticut
6: Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt, Purdue
7: Clemson, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Kent St
8: Gonzaga, Texas A&M, Arizona, Miami (FL)
9: BYU, Baylor, Arizona St, Davidson
10: Oregon, Illinois St, St. Mary's, Kansas St
11: Villanova, Mississippi St, Ohio State, Florida St
12: Syracuse, Massachusetts, Kentucky, Western Kentucky
13: Stephen F. Austin, Oral Roberts, Cornell, UC Santa Barbara
14: George Mason, Siena, San Diego, Belmont
15: Utah St, UMBC, Winthrop, Portland St
16: American, Austin Peay, Morgan St, Mt St. Mary's, Alabama St

Last 4 In: Florida St, Syracuse, Massachusetts, Kentucky
First 4 Out: Dayton, Creighton, Arkansas, UNLV
Next 4 Out: Virginia Tech, Saint Joseph's, Nebraska, Mississippi

Bracket Update - March 14th

Here is my latest bracket. A lot of bubble teams are losing early in the conference tourneys. Fortunately for them, nearly everybody they are competing with is losing as well. Very few teams have strengthened their case. It seems like a very weak bubble this year, which to me means there's no telling what the Committee will do this year.

I'm probably the only one who has Florida St in, but they have a resume that stacks up just as well as the others.

1: North Carolina, Memphis, UCLA, Tennessee
2: Duke, Kansas, Texas, Georgetown
3: Wisconsin, Stanford, Washington St, Drake
4: Xavier, Butler, Louisville, Marquette
5: Indiana, Southern California, Connecticut, Notre Dame
6: Michigan St, Pittsburgh, Vanderbilt, Purdue
7: Clemson, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Miami (FL)
8: Kent St, Texas A&M, Gonzaga, Arizona
9: BYU, Baylor, Arizona St, Davidson
10: Oregon, Illinois St, St. Mary's, Kansas St
11: Villanova, Ohio State, Mississippi St, Florida St
12: Syracuse, Massachusetts, Kentucky, Western Kentucky
13: Stephen F. Austin, Oral Roberts, Cornell, UC Santa Barbara
14: George Mason, Siena, San Diego, Belmont
15: Utah St, UMBC, Winthrop, Portland St
16: American, Austin Peay, Morgan St, Mt St. Mary's, Alabama St

Last 4 In: Florida St, Syracuse, Massachusetts, Kentucky
First 4 Out: Dayton, Creighton, Arkansas, UNLV
Next 4 Out: Saint Joseph's, Mississippi, Nebraska, California

Bubble Watch I think it's safe to say West Virginia is in, so I removed them from the list. I think it's safe to say Maryland, Florida and UAB are off the bubble, but I kept them on the list just so you can see how far down there are.

South Alabama continues to baffle me. How they deserve to get in ahead of a team like Arizona St is beyond me. Put their two schedules head-to-head and Arizona St has 8 of the 9 best wins. Arizona St has a lot more losses but most of them are two top Pac 10 teams. Arizona has five losses tougher than South Alabama's 'best' loss (at Vandy), and South Alabama has the two worst losses between the two teams (swept by Middle Tenn St). Unfortunately, there are two numbers that stick out.

South Alabama RPI 35
Arizona State RPI 82
If they get in and Arizona St doesn't, it's only because the RPI is wrong for both teams in different directions.

Proj				RANK		SOS		NC SOS
Seed	TEAM	W	L	JCI	RPI	JCI	RPI	JCI	RPI	QW	QL	Next Game
7	Miami (FL)	21	9	30	26	46	32	278	130	28	39	3/14 Virginia Tech
8	Kent St	26	6	29	27	132	127	96	61	33	34	3/14 Miami (OH)
8	Texas A&M	22	9	31	44	53	58	271	214	29	37	3/14 Kansas St
8	Arizona	18	14	34	34	1	2	24	7	22	51	None ( 3/13 L vs Stanford)
9	BYU	26	6	32	25	141	111	152	152	65	21	3/14 San Diego St
9	Baylor	20	10	36	42	41	39	216	139	34	45	None ( 3/13 L vs Colorado)
9	Arizona St	19	12	38	82	12	71	305	299	36	47	None ( 3/13 L vs Southern California)
10	Oregon	18	13	37	56	3	22	179	155	42	42	None ( 3/13 L vs Washington St)
10	Illinois St	23	9	39	33	82	72	181	116	39	44	None ( 3/ 9 L vs Drake)
10	St. Mary's	24	6	35	37	140	139	88	30	69	23	None ( 3/ 9 L at San Diego)
10	Kansas St	19	10	40	45	42	31	171	80	46	38	3/14 Texas A&M
11	Villanova	20	12	43	51	38	43	233	168	31	62	None ( 3/13 L vs Georgetown)
11	Ohio State	19	12	41	46	24	17	28	13	51	41	3/14 Michigan St
11	Mississippi St	21	9	42	39	87	53	219	123	56	43	3/14 Alabama
11	Florida St	19	13	46	62	32	23	197	129	35	66	3/14 North Carolina
12	Syracuse	19	13	51	52	33	8	193	18	32	76	None ( 3/12 L vs Villanova)
12	Massachusetts	21	10	49	43	91	64	136	86	41	63	None ( 3/13 L vs Charlotte)
12	Kentucky	18	11	48	47	48	13	129	97	53	55	3/14 Georgia
	Dayton	21	10	52	32	92	29	155	31	40	64	None ( 3/13 L vs Xavier)
	Creighton	20	10	45	49	73	69	176	98	58	48	None ( 3/ 8 L vs Drake)
	Arkansas	20	10	53	40	84	42	199	87	50	59	3/14 Vanderbilt
	UNLV	23	7	44	28	150	78	213	52	74	36	3/14 Utah
	Saint Joseph's	20	11	58	50	80	62	138	118	37	87	3/14 Xavier
	Mississippi	21	10	56	48	104	65	274	133	45	70	None ( 3/13 L vs Georgia)
	Nebraska	19	11	55	96	66	107	281	315	63	54	3/14 Kansas
	California	16	15	59	87	5	16	283	164	49	65	None ( 3/13 L vs UCLA)
	VCU	24	7	57	55	193	159	85	88	57	61	None ( 3/ 9 L vs William & Mary)
	Oklahoma St	16	14	63	75	17	15	166	111	54	75	3/14 Texas
	South Alabama	24	6	54	35	210	125	122	67	81	40	None ( 3/10 L Middle Tenn St)
	Virginia Tech	18	12	60	59	54	52	178	142	70	58	3/14 Miami
	Georgia Tech	15	16	67	68	4	9	23	44	43	102	3/14 Duke
	Southern Illinois	17	14	64	61	40	12	11	4	52	91	None ( 3/ 7 L vs Northern Iowa)
	Temple	19	12	69	60	86	51	69	27	48	98	3/14 Charlotte
	New Mexico	24	8	62	58	173	149	309	264	76	56	None ( 3/13 L vs Utah)
	Washington	16	16	66	118	6	54	187	217	62	72	None ( 3/12 L vs California)
	Wake Forest	17	13	65	97	47	85	223	267	60	77	None ( 3/13 L vs Florida St)
	Florida	21	11	61	72	97	86	330	273	77	57	None ( 3/13 L vs Alabama)
	Texas Tech	15	15	68	69	9	4	83	26	67	73	None ( 3/13 L vs Oklahoma St)
	Wright St	21	10	70	86	129	151	183	108	59	83	None ( 3/ 7 L vs Valparaiso)
	Maryland	18	14	76	83	60	25	229	70	44	115	None ( 3/13 L vs Boston College)
	Cleveland St	19	12	75	64	95	88	105	40	55	104	None ( 3/11 L at Butler)
	Rhode Island	21	11	73	77	124	104	260	195	68	89	None ( 3/12 L vs Charlotte)
	UAB	22	10	82	54	157	92	267	162	85	74	None ( 3/13 L vs Tulsa)

Bracket Update - March 12th

There was very little change after Monday night's games -- Butler and Western Kentucky won as expected. Therefore, I didn't update the brackets until we have some meaningful games on Tuesday completed. The biggie is Syracuse vs Villanova, with the loser likely staying home.

I updated my brackets with the Villanova win, and surprisingly Syracuse is still in by the skin of its teeth. This is likely to change as we go further on into the week. Most have South Alabama in, while I don't. UNLV may get in on the strength of its inflated RPI numbers, plus it has the opportunity to pad a few more wins in the Mountain West tourney. In the end, I think somebody will pass Syracuse for one of the last spots. Villanova looks safe even if they lose to Georgetown tomorrow. Ohio State shouldn't slide behind Syracuse in the pecking order even if they lose to Michigan State.

Dayton is doing everything it can to play it outself out of a tourney bid, but they did manage to hold on against St Louis in overtime. They may have to beat Xavier tomorrow to have any chance. They do have inflated RPI numbers on their side. Assuming Mississippi beats Georgia tomorrow, we may have another one of those 'loser stays home' match-ups with Kentucky in the quarterfinals.

1: North Carolina, Memphis, UCLA, Tennessee
2: Duke, Texas, Kansas, Georgetown
3: Wisconsin, Stanford, Drake, Washington St
4: Louisville, Xavier, Butler, Connecticut
5: Notre Dame, Indiana, Michigan St, Southern California
6: Marquette, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Clemson
7: Pittsburgh, Gonzaga, Oklahoma, Kent St
8: Arizona, Texas A&M, Miami (FL), Baylor
9: West Virginia, BYU, Arizona St, Oregon
10: Davidson, Illinois St, St. Mary's, Villanova
11: Kansas St, Ohio State, Mississippi St, Massachusetts
12: Syracuse, Mississippi, Arkansas, Western Kentucky
13: Stephen F. Austin, Oral Roberts, Cornell, UC Santa Barbara
14: George Mason, Siena, San Diego, Belmont
15: UMBC, Utah St, Winthrop, Portland St
16: American, Austin Peay, Morgan St, Sacred Heart, Alabama St

Last 4 In: Massachusetts, Syracuse, Mississippi, Arkansas
First 4 Out: Dayton, South Alabama, Kentucky, Florida St
Next 4 Out: Creighton, UNLV, VCU, Saint Joseph's

Bubble Teams

Proj				RANK		SOS		NC SOS
Seed	TEAM	W	L	JCI	RPI	JCI	RPI	JCI	RPI	QW	QL	Next Game
7	Kent St	25	6	28	28	127	28	97	64	34	34	3/13 Toledo/Bowling Green
8	Arizona	17	13	35	29	1	29	26	6	21	52	3/12 Oregon St
8	Texas A&M	21	9	31	30	48	30	274	218	27	39	3/13 Iowa St
8	Miami (FL)	20	9	34	31	46	31	275	133	30	44	3/13 North Carolina St
8	Baylor	20	9	29	32	39	32	230	150	32	33	3/13 Colorado
9	West Virginia	21	9	32	33	54	33	237	134	45	27	3/12 Providence
9	BYU	25	6	30	34	135	34	144	145	65	23	3/13 Colorado St/Wyoming
9	Arizona St	19	11	37	35	17	35	307	305	33	47	3/13 Southern Cal
9	Oregon	18	12	38	36	4	36	185	160	39	42	3/13 Washington St
10	Illinois St	23	9	39	38	83	38	180	115	35	46	None
10	St. Mary's	24	6	36	39	143	39	94	30	68	24	None
10	Villanova	20	11	44	40	47	40	234	167	29	65	3/13 Georgetown
11	Kansas St	19	10	40	41	43	41	166	77	46	41	3/14 Texas A&M/Iowa St
11	Ohio State	19	12	41	42	22	42	25	13	48	45	3/14 Michigan St
11	Mississippi St	21	9	42	43	84	43	221	131	52	43	3/14 Alabama/Florida
11	Massachusetts	21	9	45	44	92	44	138	83	36	58	3/13 Charlotte/Rhode Island
12	Syracuse	19	13	52	45	33	45	189	17	31	78	None
12	Mississippi	21	9	46	46	101	46	268	121	41	60	3/13 Georgia
12	Arkansas	20	10	49	47	80	47	168	84	43	63	3/14 Auburn/Vanderbilt
	Dayton	21	9	50	48	104	48	160	33	38	66	3/13 Xavier
	South Alabama	24	5	43	49	208	49	123	72	82	28	None
	Kentucky	18	11	51	50	49	50	133	92	49	57	3/14 Georgia/Mississippi
	Florida St	18	13	54	51	27	51	187	123	40	70	3/13 Wake Forest
	Creighton	20	10	48	52	75	52	183	101	62	50	None
	UNLV	22	7	47	53	147	53	217	54	74	38	3/13 TCU
	VCU	24	7	58	54	190	54	78	78	55	62	None
	Saint Joseph's	18	11	61	55	72	55	134	108	37	89	3/12 Fordham
	New Mexico	24	7	57	56	179	56	310	264	76	48	3/13 Utah
	Virginia Tech	18	12	59	57	51	57	167	126	69	59	3/14 Miami/NC State
	Florida	21	10	56	58	95	58	329	273	75	49	3/13 Alabama
	Nebraska	18	11	60	60	65	60	277	312	70	56	3/13 Missouri
	Maryland	18	13	68	62	59	62	229	68	42	99	3/13 Boston College
	Wake Forest	17	12	62	63	53	63	225	268	57	72	3/13 Florida St
	Washington	16	15	64	64	6	64	209	226	59	68	3/12 California
	Texas Tech	15	14	63	65	8	65	81	27	66	67	3/13 Oklahoma St
	Southern Illinois	17	14	66	66	42	66	14	5	51	103	None
	California	15	14	65	67	9	67	293	183	58	69	3/12 Washington
	Oklahoma St	15	14	69	68	14	68	174	122	64	82	3/13 Texas Tech
	Temple	18	12	70	69	82	69	65	26	50	106	3/13 LaSalle/Duquesne
	Georgia Tech	14	16	74	70	3	70	27	48	44	112	3/13 Virginia
	Rhode Island	21	10	67	71	123	71	260	192	67	77	3/12 Charlotte
	Wright St	21	10	71	72	129	72	193	109	61	87	None
	Cleveland St	19	12	77	73	96	73	110	45	53	111	None
	UAB	22	9	72	74	153	74	252	151	81	64	3/13 Tulsa/E Carolina